A CNN analysis of policies across 18 countries has shown that most of the countries that have now been designated by the European Union as having the epidemic under control only began to relax their regulations after seeing a sustained decline in new daily cases of Covid-19.
In contrast, three of the four countries with the highest number of deaths and the highest number of cases in the world - the United States, Brazil and India - never closed properly or started to reopen before their number of case is only starting to drop.
The EU officially approved on Tuesday a set of recommendations from 15 countries it considers safe enough to allow their residents to travel to its territory. To be listed, countries must check a number of boxes: their new cases per 100,000 citizens in the past 14 days must be similar to or lower than those in the EU, and they must have a stable or decreasing trend new cases over this period compared to the previous 14 days.
The block will also examine the measures that countries are taking, such as contact tracing, and the reliability of data for each nation.
The list includes Algeria, Australia, Canada, Georgia, Japan, Montenegro, Morocco, New Zealand, Rwanda, Serbia, South Korea, Thailand, Tunisia, Uruguay. China, where the virus originates, is also on the list, but the EU will only offer entry into China if there are reciprocal arrangements.
A review of the response of coronaviruses in the 14 countries shows that they have one key element in common. Despite economic pressure, the vast majority refused to relax social distancing measures as the number of cases increased. And when they lifted their lock, they did so in a careful and gradual manner.
Scientists say the blockages have probably prevented hundreds of millions of infections worldwide. A modeling study published in the scientific journal Nature last month estimated that by the beginning of April, closure policies had saved 285 million people in China from infection, 49 million in Italy and 60 million in United States.
"I don't think a human endeavor has ever saved so many lives in such a short time. There have been huge personal costs to stay at home and cancel events, but the data shows that every day has made a difference. profound difference, "said the study's lead author, Solomon Hsiang, professor and director of the Global Policy Laboratory at the University of California at Berkeley.
The success of the locking depends on several reasons, in particular of its being put in place early enough. No two locks are alike, so even if people in countries like Italy or Spain are fined if they venture outside their home for other than essential reasons, in Japan, staying at home is a recommendation rather than a prescription.
Australia, Canada and New Zealand were quick to restrict travel, while in other countries, including Algeria, Georgia and Morocco, children were the first to notice the impact of the pandemic on school closings.
Other measures included home stay orders, non-essential store closings, quarantine and segregation. Some countries, such as Algeria, Rwanda, Montenegro and China, experienced outbreaks after the restrictions were lifted. This prompted officials to reintroduce certain measures locally.
In China, the capital Beijing was put under partial lockdown last month following a new cluster linked to a food market. Montenegro last week lifted the ban on mass events after seeing a new outbreak after three virus-free weeks. And in Rwanda, health officials placed a number of villages in a new closure last week after new cases emerged.
But the restrictions launched to combat the disease have also been extremely damaging to the economy and have exacerbated existing inequalities in education and the workplace, as well as between genders, races and socio-economic backgrounds.
As stores and schools close and almost all travel stops, hundreds of millions of people around the world suddenly find themselves unemployed. The impact on the economy is one of the reasons why some leaders, including US President Donald Trump, lobbied for a rapid reopening, even though infectious disease experts have warned against lifting the regulations too early. restrictions.
A previous version of this story incorrectly stated the number of lives that scientists say have been saved because of the blockages. It has been fixed.Aleesha Khaliq, Dario Klein, Shasta Darlington, Rodrigo Pedroso, Manveena Suri, Paula Newton, Yoko Wakatsuki, Milena Veselinovic and Kocha Olarn contributed to the report.
