Prime Minister David Cameron faced with European dilemma
On July 1, there were two compelling articles in the Sunday Telegraph under the title of Europe: The Tory dilemma. UK Prime Minister, David Cameron, put his view first with the heading ‘We will consider a referendum, but not right now,’ followed by Liam Fox MP’s response of ‘No more waiting: we must renegotiate our position.’
In essence, I could see reasons for agreeing with both of them, not being sure that the Prime Minister only alluding to EU renegotiation was enough to divide the two. They both are against a referendum now as too restrictive. They both recognize that the EU is changing, ‘and fast’ as Cameron pointed out, but where they differ is that the PM wants the country to show ‘tactical and strategic patience’ while the former Defence Secretary believes that ‘this is the moment to negotiate a new, looser and largely economic relationship’. So gathering their areas of agreement together, notably the latter part of the Fox quote, I considered how difficult this proposal was going to be.
A number of the 27 governments in the EU are in coalition, therefore there is no novelty in the concept that the EU should be capable of being an all encompassing institution, an institution that offers various capabilities and mechanisms, such as foreign affairs cooperation, a single currency, a single trade area, uniform standards of health and safety, human rights and financial regulation. The point being it should not alarm or confuse the EU as a whole, if members did not wish to avail themselves of every option.
It should not alarm or confuse the EU as a whole, if members did not wish to avail themselves of every option.
Furthermore, the EU is not an amalgamation of regions within a country, but of sovereign states; and sometimes, the institution finds it difficult to speak with a single voice. This is not the significant problem some believe. Seventeen member states, comprising the eurozone, are presently going through a series of structural changes, in which the watchwords are cohesion and effectiveness, through flexibility and compromise. As a result of this process, there is going to be a new forging of what it means to be part of the EU, where acknowledgement of different economic and social cultures will strongly figure. The UK is one of the member states that is finding the restructuring too demanding and is hoping to persuade the EU to focus on flexibility and individual circumstances, while the situation is fluid.
There is not, as yet, any specific start date for the renegotiation process, but according to some reports, Cameron has intimated that he will set out a proposal at the autumn Conservative Party Conference, showing which powers his government would seek to repatriate from the EU. This is encouraging, but it would be much more reassuring to have a set policy document and accompanying consultation and debate schedule.
There are 30 months before the UK gets into the 2015 election mode and it would be positive during that time to have the repatriation chronology set out. For whilst noting the Sunday Telegraph’s editorial opinion that Labour is in danger of ‘cynically promising’ an in-out referendum on UK EU membership, I see this type of initiative as understandable politics (a recent Populus poll for The Times showed a total of 82 percent in favour of a referendum on Europe) and likely to happen. Whereas, drifting on, hoping one day to be at the influential heart of the EU, is not.
A referendum on UK’s EU’s membership is understandable, even inevitable – drifting on, hoping one day to be at the influential heart of the EU, is not.
So it would be far better for the sake of this significant election many people are anticipating, if having debated and finalised the repatriation issues both inside and outside parliament, they are put to the EU with the prospect of having an answer before 2015. There is a fair chance the election might have a referendum attached, or due just after, so late 2014 might be a suitable timescale for a response that could inform the wording of the referendum question.
There is little reason to think this repatriation activity would come as any great surprise to the members of the EU. A looser UK relationship has frequently been discussed and the EU is a broad enough institution to accommodate varying degrees of involvement in the facilities on offer. In fact,members would probably be content to let the UK get on with it until the proposals were tabled.
In any event, the Eurozone has more immediate concerns and some in the UK are saying that talk of a referendum is unhelpful in the present financial situation. But I feel more confident the single currency will generally come through and it is appropriate that the UK’s proposals are assembled alongside the significant and far-reaching changes being envisaged within the Eurozone. The markets will probably not be concerned if the UK works on repatriating certain internal powers. They are focused on financial matters; and the Euro, set up in comparative isolation, is now through new consensus politics, addressing the disadvantages this has brought, hoping to create the stable economic environment in which reduction and growth can occur.
All of which brings me back to the articles in the Sunday Telegraph and in particular, to their closing paragraphs. Cameron says in his, that the two words ‘Europe and ‘referendum’ ‘can go together’ and Fox , on immediate negotiation for repatriation, that ‘Our national interest is at stake.’
What seems to be separating the two points of view, that of Government and mainstream Euroscepticism, is timing.
What seems to be separating the two points of view, that of Government and mainstream Euroscepticism, is timing. Both assume that the possibility of an immediate referendum is highly unlikely, but differ on concrete proposals for the way forward until such a referendum is held. To me, the Eurosceptics seem to be saying ‘where’s the beef?’ They want immediate negotiation, but perhaps there’s a possibility they would accept a firm timetable and make an effective compromise.
