These charts were made from information in a new Rasmussen Poll (conducted on March 18th and 19th of 1,000 nationwide likely voters, with a 3 point margin of error).
The political pundits are still predicting the Republicans will win the November election -- keeping their substantial majority in the House of Representatives, and possibly even increasing it. But I have to wonder if those pundits really understand what is happening outside the "Beltway". Poll after poll has shown that voters are disgusted with Congress -- and while they are not happy with either party, they blame the Republicans more for the current dysfunctional Congress.
And several polls have shown that if the voters could cast a vote to oust every member of Congress, a clear majority would do it. That tells me that there's a mood in the country that well could be the start of a voter revolution. And that should concern all incumbents -- but it should worry the Republicans more, because they hold the majority and have a lot more to lose.
This new poll by Rasmussen tends to support that view. Voters aren't just unhappy with Congress (with only 7% saying Congress is doing a good job), they are also getting very unhappy with their own representative in Congress. In the past, while a huge majority thought Congress was doing a poor job, they still liked and supported their own representative -- but that is now changing.
According to this poll only about 24% of voters think their own representative cares what they think, while only 22% say their representative is the best person for that job. Even more important, only 29% are willing to say their representative deserves to be re-elected. Those are some atrocious numbers, and show there is a definite anti-incumbent feeling sweeping the nation.
This does not mean there are no safe seats. Both parties have seats that are safe, and will remain with that party even in a voter revolt. But there are quite a few competitive seats -- seats that could easily be flipped. And at least 60 of those competitive seats are currently held by Republicans. The Democrats only need 17 more seats to take control of the House, and that could happen since the GOP has more seats up for re-election than the Democrats -- which makes them more vulnerable to a voter revolution.
If I was an incumbent Republican, I'd be very worried right now.
