John Burns left a comment on my post of three years ago explaining the pricing policies of the two canals and how they would be affected if the North West Passage became ice-free.
The Northwest Passage is operating. The 69,000 ton Crystal Serenity will be the largest ship ever to navigate the Northwest Passage. Starting on 10 August 2016, the ship will sail from Vancouver to New York City with 1,700 passengers, taking 28 days for the journey. It needs pilots on board to get through.
If large container ships use the passage in summer it will knock off a substantial time from China and Japan to the UK/Europe. From Shanghai to London Thamesport it is 11,866 nautical miles. From Shanghai to Liverpool via the Northwest Passage is approx. 9,211 (using Google Earth). That 2,600 mile less is substantial. Liverpool is soon bringing on-line its container terminal extension capable of handling ships with 20,000 containers - average now is around 4,000 containers. So imported Far East goods may become cheaper*.
His source, CBC News.
We will have to keep an eye on the Suez and Panama Canals' prices; these are based on the days saved compared to any alternative route multiplied by the daily cost of having a container ship at sea. It's a rental payment like anything else.
If going via the North West Passage is a week shorter than going round the Capes of Horn/Good Hope, container ships cost $10,000 a day to run and the pilot/additional insurance is $20,000, we would expect to see their tolls fall by $50,000 per ship.
* This bit is highly unlikely. Chinese factories sell for cost-plus; container ships cost what they cost; Western retailers sell goods for what they can get; everything else goes to rent (Canal charges or higher rents for retail premises). In any event, the cost of shipping per unit is insanely low so even if it fell by half and the entire saving were passed on to consumers, this would only knock 0.05% off selling prices (or something).
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