The Impact of Player Tendencies on "expected Goal" and "expected Shot Value"

I've used conditional probability in a previous post in an attempt to measure the expected goal value (EGV) or the expected shot value (ESV) of a specific puck-possession play. The post focused exclusively on offensive-zone possession-events, but I have ESV's and EGV's for possession plays that occur in the neutral and defensive-zones as well. Not surprisingly, the values get progressively smaller as the plays move further away from the opposition's net.
This post will attempt to incorporate player tendencies into those values. Tendencies are described as the rate at which a player chose a specific play over another option. For example, a player in the offensive-zone has 7 options (that I track).

1. He can attempt a shot on net
2. He can attempt an east/west pass across the offensive-zone
3. He can attempt a cycle pass along the boards
4. He can attempt to beat an opposing player 1on1 (open-ice deke)
5. He can attempt to beat an opposing player 1on1 along the boards (wall deke)
6. He can make a pass off of the rush
7. He can attempt to pass the puck to a teammate who is positioned in the slot

Each potential play is tracked as either successful or unsuccessful.
Out of 100 possession-plays (to make the numbers easier to understand); if a player attempted 18 shots than his tendency to shoot is 18%. If he attempted 4 passes to the slot out of 100 possession-plays than his tendency to pass to the slot is 4%.
We can incorporate player tendencies into each plays expected goal/shot value simply by multiplying each play's expected value (EGV/EPV) by the player's tendency to attempt that specific play; in the example given the tendency for a shot would be 0.18 or 18%. The tendency for a pass to the slot would be 0.04 or 4%.
The resulting number for each possible event gives us (based on past success-rates) a real-time indication of the likelihood of each of the 7 possible puck-possession plays resulting in either a shot on net or a goal. Think of the result as a map to the most successful or unsuccessful route.
TENDENCY-INFLUENCED EXPECTED SHOT VALUE (ESV) FOR PK SUBBAN
Each number indicates how often Subban chose that option combined with how often (in terms of success-rate) it resulted in a shot on goal. Expressed simply, the graph indicates that 14.84% of the time PK Subban attempted a play with possession of the puck in the offensive-zone, he was able to get a shot through to the net. In this graph, any pass Subban made was to an average Canadiens forward.

TENDENCY-INFLUENCED EXPECTED GOAL VALUE (EGV) FOR PK SUBBAN
Each number indicates how often Subban chose that option combined with how often (in terms of success-rate) it resulted in a goal. Expressed simply, the graph indicates that 0.84% of the time PK Subban attempted a play with possession of the puck in the offensive-zone, he was able to get a shot through to the net that resulted in a goal. In this graph, any pass Subban made was to an average Canadiens forward.

TENDENCY-INFLUENCED EXPECTED GOAL VALUE (EGV) FOR PK SUBBAN
WITH PASSES TO SPECIFIC PLAYERS
Instead of using the tendency and expected values produced by averaging all Canadiens forwards, this graph involves David Desharnais', Andrei Markov's and Max Pacioretty's tendencies and expected values in some of the succeeding plays. All originating plays were produced by Subban.
For example, the wall deke/pass to the slot/shot value includes Subban's wall-deke and pass to the slot numbers with Pacioretty's shot numbers; instead of the average from all Habs forwards. The east-west pass/pass to slot/shot value involves Subban making an east-west pass to Andrei Markov, who then passes the puck to Pacioretty; who then attempts a shot. The east/west pass/shot value includes an east-west pass by Subban followed by a shot from Pacioretty. The pass to the slot/shot combination includes a pass to the slot by Subban and a shot attempt by Pacioretty.
As we can see, the values go up as better players are involved in the play. As hoped, this shows that the tendencies, as well as the expected values of the the players involved in the succeeding plays directly impact the chance of success.

Feel free to email me any combination of player EGV's or ESV's you would like to see; just indicate whether you want them to be impacted by tendencies, or straight up EGV/ESV. I'll be happy to do a write up on those combinations in the future.