Climate change is thought of by many as a problem that lies reassuringly far in the future: most middle aged people will not even live to feel its effects, it is thought. If temperatures rise by a few degrees and some food shortages develop, it’s not an issue: we don’t have to worry about it until 2050, and some sort of marvelous scientific solution will have been found to allow us to continue over-consuming, flying across the globe for every holiday, and treating all consumer goods as thoroughly disposable anyway.
Such is the unconscious assumption of most people. Alas, the reality is not quite so comfortable. So let’s tackle the greatest misconception first: every time a major scientific report is issued warning of ‘X’ deaths due to climate change by 2060, or that sea levels will rise by ‘Y’ metres by 2040, this does not mean that things will remain normal until those dates. It means gradual change, but it means change that is already taking place. It is today that the world is starting to feel the effects of climate change.
That is why the story of the world’s first climate refugee is a highly symbolic one. A 37 year-old man, with his wife and three children, is in the midst of a legal battle in New Zealand in which he is trying to convince judges that his family cannot return to their home in Kiribati. The refugee says that there is ‘no future for [his] children’ on the poverty-stricken low lying islands that comprise the Pacific nation.
The refugee, who must remain anonymous under New Zealand law, has spoken of how increasingly regular floods- known locally as ‘king tides’- have breached his island village’s sea defences, devastating crops and spreading waterborne diseases. He has cited fears for the health of his two youngest children under such conditions as part of his asylum claim.
Unfortunately for the I-Kiribati, New Zealand is similar to most nations in that it has no legislation to deal with climate asylum. His claim was initially turned down (it is being appealed in the High Court) on the grounds that flooding posed ‘no imminent danger’ to his family and that his predicament was no worse than that of the other 130,500 Kiribati residents. A judge argued that a family should not be helped because there were many others who also needed help. That is, on many counts, a novel line of argument.
Judges can send this family back to an island nation which is set to disappear under the Pacific Ocean within decades if they so choose. But they should consider that the millions of Pacific islanders who will lose their countries to the ocean did not create the climate change that is causing this slow motion tragedy. It’s affluent, high-carbon economies like those in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, North America that are responsible for this mess. It might be one family today, but estimates point to 250 million being displaced by 2050 due to flooding and crop failures.
250,000,000 climate refugees. We don’t know how many of them will look overseas, but the number is certain to dwarf the existing number of asylum seekers (about 49 million according to UN estimates). Even if those of us in a more fortunate geographical situation do nothing, that’s a formidable army of humanity who will reach dry, arable land or die trying. The potential for bloody and brutal conflicts is massive, and it will affect every single one of us in a shorter time than you’d think. This century is going to be shaped by warfare over increasingly scarce resources such as water, habitable land and energy, but we can minimise this if we act now to prevent climate change. But I see no sign of a green revolution. Do you?
