The End of the World is Getting Nearer [October 30, 2027]

Back in April, 2022, I wrote a post entitled, Is the world coming to an end in 2033? That’s what the (AI) crowd says. It was about how a group of AI fans, if you will, have been tracking the arrival of AGI (that is, artificial general intelligence) at a prediction marked called Metaculus (see below), where there is a prediction about the arrival of AGI. As many of these people believe that, very soon after it arrives, AGI will go rogue and destroy humankind, the arrival of AGI is, for those people, effectively the end of the world. I attached a short appendix to that post in which I tracked the changes in the Metaculus prediction. I've reproduced that appendix below, along with the prediction as it stands today, at Oct 30, 2027. Since I've not been following it at all closely I don't know whether or not this is as close as it has been. What I'm really interested in is whether or the release of ChatGPT has moved the needle. If so, not by much.

The good news, I suppose, is that it is become evermore likely that I'll live to see the end of the world.

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From Karen Hao, The messy, secretive reality behind OpenAI’s bid to save the world, Technology Review, February 17, 2020.

Every year, OpenAI’s employees vote on when they believe artificial general intelligence, or AGI, will finally arrive. It’s mostly seen as a fun way to bond, and their estimates differ widely. But in a field that still debates whether human-like autonomous systems are even possible, half the lab bets it is likely to happen within 15 years.

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FWIW, I’ve just checked with Metaculus (April 19, 2022 at about 2 PM). The apocalypse has been pushed ahead to November 2032. I don’t know where it will be when you check on it. 

Holy crap! It's now 4:42 PM on the 19th and the apocalypse has moved up to June 14, 2032.

The end is getting closer. As of 5:34 AM, EDT (Eastern Daylight Time) on April 20, it has moved to Feb. 6, 2032. How long will it keep advancing on the present? Would you care to predict just when it will have moved into the past?

5:19 AM, EDT, April 21, the end is drawing still closer, Jan. 30, 2032.

9:33 AM, EDT, June 19, Yikes! We've lost three years, Jan. 9, 2029. 

7:01 AM, EDT, June 22, 2022, Whew! We've picked up some breathing room the last three days. Now it now looks like AI arrives on March 5, 2029. 

10:49 AM, EDT, July 3, 2022, More breathing room. Now it now looks like AI arrives on March 21, 2029.  

10:52 PM, EDT, December 9, 2022, It's getting closer. Now it now looks like AI arrives on Oct 30, 2027.