But as we learned in 2016 (and 2000!), The only account that really matters is the Electoral College.
Unfortunately for Trump, his chances of getting the 270 electoral votes he needs to win a second term appear, at least for the time being, to be pretty slim.
Over the past week, two major political tipsters - Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report and Nate Silver of 538 - have posted updates on the electoral map. And the image they paint for Trump is dire.
"With just under five months before the election, President Trump is a serious underdog for re-election," writes Walter, who solidly puts 248 electoral votes or cast for Biden and 204 solidly or cast for Trump.
"To win the Electoral College, Biden would need to win only 26% of these Toss Up states / districts, while Trump would need to win more than 75%. In other words, Trump has little margin for error, while that Biden has a wider path to victory. "Silver's analysis is similar.
"Overall - assuming states not surveyed follow the same path as in 2016 - Biden leads the states with 368 electoral votes, while Trump leads the states with 170 electoral votes, "he wrote.
To be clear: Neither Walter nor Silver (nor I) say that the election is over or that Trump cannot win. In fact, while Silver suggests that there is a possibility that Biden could win in a "landslide" if all of the current states turn to him, "so does Trump's Electoral College victory, according to the way the race is going by November.
But what they are say that for the moment, the electoral map is very much in favor of Biden. Not only should the traditional Democratic states won by Trump in 2016, like Michigan and Pennsylvania, return to the Democratic column in 2020, but former Republican strongholds like Arizona, North Carolina, and possibly even Texas seem to be playing for Biden.
All of this gives the presumed Democratic candidate, as Walter rightly notes, more paths to the 270 electoral votes he needed to be the 46th president.
Paths make still exist for Trump - including holding two of the three Rust Belt states (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) and keeping the status quo elsewhere on the map.
But there are far fewer avenues for Trump than for Biden. And with each passing week, the number of good electoral map options for Trump continues to dwindle.
: The best news for Trump is that polling day is far away. If the election were held today, he would convincingly lose - in the popular vote and in the Electoral College.
