Iran is under constant internal and external pressure, marked by widespread protests, economic damage from sanctions, and repression. Despite this pressure, the regime has remained intact. The Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij have maintained their loyalty and operational effectiveness, and there are no signs of significant defections in the armed forces (Artesh). The situation may become slightly more favorable for the uprising if Israel and the United States carry out a more extensive attack on the structures of Iran’s theocratic repressive regime than last year’s 12-Day War.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the United States to discuss regional issues in the Middle East with US President Donald Trump and his aides, particularly the coordination of a possible joint attack on Iran.
President Trump also stated after the talks, “I’m going to talk to the Iranians as long as I want. If we don’t make a deal with them, we’ll go to phase two. Phase two is going to be very difficult for them. I don’t expect that.”
Trump also asked Prime Minister Netanyahu not to surprise him with Iran, which was described as possibly implying that Israel would not launch a preemptive strike.
US Strike Readiness Strong and Growing
The INSS interactive map below highlights the deployment of US military assets and other relevant actors in the region. The current configuration conveys deterrence and readiness for offensive military operations while reflecting a strong desire to avoid a protracted conflict. Combined with Israeli actions and diplomatic communications, this configuration supports coercive diplomacy. The map is updated regularly and as accurately as possible based on open source intelligence and media reporting.
Credit INSS
US forces in the region are ~40,000. The USS Abraham Lincoln-led carrier strike group operates off the coast of Oman with the AIS system disabled, with the carrier carrying F-35C, F/A-18E/F, EA-18G and E-2D squadrons. In addition, 8 × Arleigh Burke-class destroyers in the Arabian Sea, eastern Mediterranean and Red Sea. The air force continues to operate mainly in Jordan with ~36 × F-15E Strike Eagle fighters as anti-strike assets, as well as increased strategic and tactical airlift operations (C-5, C-17, KC-135, KC-46).
The mobility of US air defenses and the deployment of THAAD systems underscore regional readiness: Satellite images show US forces at Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar loading missiles onto truck-mounted launchers, allowing for faster movement and rapid deployment, as well as the repositioning of strike or defensive positions.
Amid rising tensions with Iran, the US has deployed all THAAD systems at Muwaffaq al-Salt Air Base in eastern Jordan, including a command and control unit, an AN/TPY-2 radar, and six launchers, for a total of 36 interceptor missiles. Iranian media released a video threatening to strike Muwaffaq al-Salt Air Base in the event of war.
The force in the region is also set to grow in the coming weeks. The US has ordered the USS Gerald R. Ford-led carrier strike group to move from the Caribbean to the Middle East. The USS Gerald R. Ford is the world’s largest and most advanced aircraft carrier and is expected to arrive in the region in the coming weeks, where it is expected to operate alongside existing US naval forces.
📡 The Trump administration also secretly sent about 6,000 Starlink satellite internet terminals to Iran after Tehran cracked down on nationwide protests and the subsequent internet shutdown last month.
Israel ready to strike
Israel has been ready to strike Iran since late last year, as well as to repel a potential attack from Iran. In recent weeks, readiness has been increased, including by increasing reservist air warfare exercises. The operational readiness of Iron Dome has also been significantly increased in recent weeks, reflecting enhanced preparations for possible future conflict scenarios.
Israel has continued to equip and expand its already extensive local field organization in Iran. These cellular groups are tasked with monitoring targets – missile installations, research facilities, factories, IRGC and Basij command centers, as well as their researchers and leaders – and, if necessary, carrying out sabotage operations. This is precisely the intelligence that Israel provided to the United States during Netanyahu’s visit.
Israel announced on February 11, 2026, that it had completed tests of its upgraded David’s Sling air defense system. The Israeli Defense Ministry said in a statement that the tests were conducted by the Israel Missile Defense Agency in cooperation with the US Missile Defense Agency and Rafael Advanced Defense Systems. “The test series was built on operational experience gained from recent combat and included a wide range of challenging scenarios that simulated existing and emerging threats,” the statement said.
The David Sling is designed to counter a variety of threats, including rockets, missiles, cruise missiles, aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles. According to unconfirmed reports, the upgraded David Sling can also be used to counter ballistic missiles. If so, the cost of countering it would be reduced from about €2.5 million to about €1 million per interception compared to the Arrow system, which is mainly used.
My final assessment: Strike before summer -26
Iran’s diplomatic negotiations with the United States appear to be about buying time rather than a genuine effort to defuse the situation. The United States has signaled that it is open to a diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue, although it is unclear whether this reflects a sustainable or comprehensive approach. Iran, in turn, has stated that it refuses to negotiate on its nuclear and missile programs or support for its foreign proxy armies. On this basis, any kind of agreement – at least one that is acceptable to Israel – is highly unlikely, and a military solution is expected.
The movements of US, Israeli and also Iranian forces suggest preparation for a possible US attack on Iranian resources rather than mere symbolic posturing. The composition and messages of the forces reflect a credible readiness for military action, albeit with ongoing efforts to keep diplomatic channels open.
In my opinion, the attack on Iran will take place by early summer at the latest, so that the excessive strengthening of Iran’s missile forces (capacity, development work, moving launch sites further east, restoration of underground production facilities) can be prevented. President Trump is setting aside about a month for negotiations, and during this time Israel will not attack Iran independently, but together with the US or alone when the negotiation path has been exhausted.
Sources include e.g. INSS and Social media
The article first appeared in the online publication Ariel-Israelista suomeksi
