Debate Magazine
From Wiki and Wiki: "The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes a film that comes as a surprise, has a major effect and is excruciatingly bad, often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, after he walked out of a cinema halfway through a screening in 2010, to explain: 1. The disproportionate role of self-indulgent film makers trying to pander to a pretentious audience by delivering a high-profile, hard-to-predict film such as "The Black Swan" which is beyond the realm of normal expectations in literature, screenwriting, acting and film making. 2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential downright awful viewer experience using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of the small probability of a film with Natalie Portman in it being absolute rubbish). 3. The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to the fact that a film is shit, provided all the reviewers and critics lack the courage of their own convictions and crumble in the face of peer pressure. Unlike the earlier philosophical black swan problem, the black swan theory refers only to films whose unwatchability is of large magnitude and consequence and which have a dominant role in the arts pages. Such films, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles in popular memory than decent watchable Hollywood output. More technically, in the scientific monograph "Lectures on Probability and Risk in Hollywood: Crap Films (Volume 1)" Taleb mathematically defines the black swan problem as "stemming from the use of degenerate metaprobability"."
