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The 2012 Wave Up May Be Complete

Posted on the 13 March 2014 by Souljester @souljester618
From an Elliott Wave perspective, one can now count the move up off the 2012 low as complete. Here is the chart: The 2012 Wave Up May Be Complete

This is important for the long term scenarios I have been discussing. Most Recent Long Term Update.  The stop remains at that SPX 1920 area because that is the tippy top of the fib extensions as I have mentioned. However, presently we now have a completed wave count here with the final wave (v) of 5 being equal to the wave (i) of 5.   The wave up off the 2012 low is important in my analysis as I have long explained. By way of summary, I will explain again. I concluded that there is a triangle in the middle of the wave up off the 2009 low. That has two potential ramifications from an Elliott Wave perspective. Either that triangle is the end of a complex correction from 1998/2000, or it is the B wave in an ABC up off the 2009 low. 

Accordingly, if the triangle completion at the 2012 low is the end of a complex correction, then the wave up off the 2012 is the first wave in a new bull market (yes, I know it could be a 5th, but that does not affect the analysis). This would be bullish. On the other hand, if it is a B wave in an ABC off the 2009 low, then we would have just completed a corrective wave in the correction that started in 1998/2000 and would be about to witness 5 waves down to the SPX 430 area. So, the 2012 holds the key to the universe. If that low fails, the ABC off the 2009 becomes primary and we are still in the now 14-16 year correction from 1998/2000.  If that low holds, the correction ended in 2012 with a complex triangle conclusion and a new bull market is underway since 2012. It follows, that if the labelling I have is correct and the wave (at least first wave) up off the 2012 is complete, then we are in the beginnings of either (1) a wave 2 down to back test that low, which will hold, and a bullish wave 3 will follow, or (2) the beginning of a visicous bearish wave down that will break that 2012 low and take us sub the 2009 low.   So, we are at interesting times from an Elliott Wave perspective. I personally hope that we are in the beginning of a new bull market and that the bear market ended in 2012. I just follow charts and believe the 2012 offers a key marker on whether the 1998/2000 bear market has ended.

Of course, the wave could extend (I had originally thought, with indicator confirmation, that the May 2013 top--where the Red 3 is placed--was the top of the wave up off the June 2012 lows). Elliott Wave is primarily descriptive and not predictive. Primarily.    There is always a bear path and a bull path. We cannot know which path our future will take. As always, do your own due diligence, read the disclaimer, and make your own investment decisions.

Peace, Om,

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