The following editorial is by Mark P. Jones in the Houston Chronicle:
On Saturday, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton was acquitted on all 16 articles of impeachment filed against him, with every article falling well short of the 21 votes required for conviction and removal of office. Only two of the 18 Republican state senators voted to convict on any of the articles of impeachment (joined by all 12 Democrats on a majority of the votes), in a trial that most if not all Republicans senators, along with Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, would have preferred have never taken place, and for which they blame Republican House Speaker Dade Phelan.
The 16 Republican senators voted for acquittal in spite of the strong and compelling evidence that Paxton abused his powers as Texas attorney general to benefit disgraced investor Nate Paul in multiple ways. The evidence was also crystal clear that Paxton retaliated (in violation of state law) against the members of his staff who became whistleblowers when they reported — only after repeated efforts to get Paxton to desist from his efforts to weaponize the AG’s office on Paul’s behalf — their concerns to the FBI.
Paxton’s acquittal underscores a truism in Texas politics today: political power flows through the Republican Party primary in March and May rather than through the November general election. As a result, Republican elected officials, such as these 18 Republican state senators, the governor and the lieutenant governor, are far more attuned to the preferences and priorities of the 1 to 3 million Texans who vote in Republican primary elections than to the preferences and priorities of the state’s 18 million registered voters, or to the evidence that was presented during the impeachment trial.
A Texas Politics Project poll in August showed that, even before the trial began, 47 percent of Texas registered voters believed Ken Paxton took actions that justified removing him from office, compared to 18 percent who believed they did not justify removal and 35 percent who were unsure.
However, Texans who identify as Republican were more mixed in regard to Paxton’s fate in the survey, with 24 percent in favor of removal, 32 percent against and 43 percent unsure. Furthermore, many of the most visible and dynamic activist groups and individuals within the Republican Party mounted a robust and effective campaign, with an assist from Donald Trump, to mobilize the GOP’s activist base to pressure the 18 senators and other Republican elected officials to support acquittal. And, while there was some modest counter-pressure from other Republican groups and elites to convict, or to at least not discard conviction out of hand, it was much more subdued and not nearly as passionate.
As a result, when the Republican-controlled Texas Senate examined the lay of the political land over the past few weeks it saw strong evidence of malfeasance presented during the trial and a state electorate that heavily favored conviction and removal from office. But it also saw a divided Republican primary electorate with a plurality favoring acquittal, and a loud and passionate pro-Paxton group within the GOP arguing in favor of acquittal compared to a quiet and low-key anti-Paxton group within the GOP arguing in favor of conviction and removal.
Most of the 18 senators were thus forced to make what was for them a no-win decision on Saturday: vote to convict and remove Paxton from office and earn the wrath of the GOP activist base and pro-Paxton elected officials, or vote to acquit and earn the wrath of many of the more politically active members of the general public as well as undercut their moral authority to criticize local, state or national Democrats for alleged acts of corruption or other illegal or unethical behavior in the future.
In a state where the electorate that truly matters is the spring Republican primary electorate, rather than the fall general election electorate, the Republican-controlled Texas Senate made the strategic choice. They cast the vote preferred by the most intense and active members of the Republican primary electorate rather than casting the vote best supported by the evidence presented at the trial or preferred by the general public. And, while at least a few of the 16 senators who voted for acquittal likely favored conviction, once it became clear that there were not 21 votes on any article of impeachment, they chose the politically expedient option of acquittal.
While Paxton’s acquittal can be seen as being in the best interests of the Republican majority in the Texas Senate, it is not in the best interests of the Texas Republican Party or the State of Texas more generally. Barring legal difficulties arising from his state felony trial or ongoing federal investigation, Paxton will continue to serve as the state’s chief law enforcement officer until at least 2025 (if not longer), in spite of the strong and very public evidence of illegal and unethical activity presented against him in the trial. And, emboldened by his legal victory, the attorney general will continue to be a powerful force to be reckoned with within the Texas Republican Party, meaning that the GOP civil war will not be ending anytime soon, with the next battles set to take place in the upcoming fall special session on school choice and in the 2024 GOP primaries.
