Satellite images released last Tuesday by US firm Maxar Technologies showed water pooling in a reservoir behind a controversial Blue Nile dam in Ethiopia, prompting Egyptian officials to demand urgent clarification and those in neighboring Sudan to complain. of falling water levels. along the river.
It now appears that heavy rains have caused the reservoir to swell, but as Ethiopia has repeatedly said it will fill the dam with or without an agreement with the other two countries, the footage has worried Egyptian and Sudanese authorities. . If Ethiopia starts filling the dam at a rapid rate, they fear it could have profound effects on their own water supplies.
On the same day, the three countries failed to come to an agreement on how the project should unfold as the latest round of negotiations collapsed.
It aims to provide electricity to around 60% of Ethiopian households that are so far not covered by the electricity grid and is part of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's vision to transform the country into a major regional exporter of 'energy.
Without electricity, many Ethiopians depend on shrinking forests for firewood, while the 40% of the country that is technically connected to the grid suffers from disruptive power cuts, said Birhanu Lenjiso, co-founder of the Research Institute. on East African policies, to CNN.
"It is a very dire situation. It is a very sad situation that we have been living like this for centuries when we actually contribute about 85% of the water in the Nile and we do not use any of that water." , he added.
But for Egypt, the dam threatens one of its most precious resources. Most of Egypt's 102 million people live in the narrow Nile Valley, along the river, and depend on it for everything from drinking water to industrial use and irrigation.
"My father and grandfather lived near the Nile and my children and grandchildren will live near the Nile," Ahmed Abdel-Wahab, a farmer from southern Egypt, told CNN. He speculated that the dam could lead to a 60% drop in its annual harvest and increased water costs. "We are very worried. All the farmers are worried," he said.
Sudan would mainly benefit from the dam's cheap electricity and a steady flow of water that will reduce flooding and increase irrigation, according to the International Crisis Group. But its proximity to the project - just 20 km from its border with Ethiopia - could make its own Roseires dam vulnerable to flooding, without proper coordination.
Speaking to CNN, Ethiopia's Minister of Water, Irrigation and Energy, Seleshi Bekele, dismissed earlier reports that the country had started to fill the reservoir, saying rainfall was there " pooled ".
Seleshi said active filling of the dam will begin in two years, when construction is complete - indicating there is still time for further discussions.
Analysts agree that the water seen in satellite images is most likely rain.
"Because the dam reached a fairly advanced stage of construction, there had already been a natural safeguard of the river behind it, due to the rainy season," said William Davison, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group in Ethiopia from the Ethiopian capital, Addis. Ababa.
Managing the longest river in the world
It is not surprising that managing the waters of the Nile is a complicated business. The river stretches for more than 4,100 miles and crosses 11 countries.
The Blue Nile, the artery that gives the river more than 80% of its water, begins in Lake Tana in Ethiopia. It meets the main stream, the White Nile, in Khartoum, Sudan, then heads to Egypt and the Mediterranean Sea.
Much of the negotiation currently revolves around when to fill the dam, how quickly it will be filled, and how to alleviate the drought. Ethiopia initially offered to fill the dam in three years, while Egypt wanted it to be done over 10 to 15 years.
Since then, there has been a verbal agreement to fill the dam in eight years, Hafsa Halawa, a non-resident researcher at the Middle East Institute based in Washington DC, told CNN.
Egypt fears that rapid refilling will lead to a drop in the amount of water reaching its part of the Nile.
Egypt's former irrigation minister told the BBC in 2018 that a 2% drop in Nile water would result in the loss of 200,000 acres of farmland and a million jobs. But the exact impact of the dam on downstream flows remains unknown.
So far, the three countries have not been able to agree on who would conduct the required environmental studies, what access to give researchers and to what extent the results should be binding.
Then comes the question of what would happen if a prolonged drought hit the region.
With a heavy rainy season and agreement in principle on an eight-year infill schedule, there are no immediate problems on the horizon, but Cairo fears a future drought, or other potential projects. , does not disturb the flow of water along the Nile.
Ethiopia wants all parties to implement their own drought mitigation measures, like Egypt using its own reserves at its Aswan High Dam, Davison told CNN.
It also wants to tackle problems as they arise and - where possible - not to commit to predetermined agreements, such as the discharge of specified amounts of water downstream from its reservoirs. during dry periods, he added.
"The sticking point is the future," said Halawa. "Ethiopia continues to view these negotiations as a way to agree on the management and populating of GERD. She does not see them as a broader agreement on water security and water sharing. Egypt does. And that's basically the legal and technical difference.
Colonial era agreements
The agreements signed in 1929 and 1959 gave Egypt and Sudan the lion's share of the waters of the Nile. Ethiopia rejected them as colonial-era agreements; it signed an agreement in 2010 with six other countries in the Nile basin which deprived Egypt and Sudan of the right of veto over river projects.
"As we recognize Ethiopia's right to development, the water of the Nile is a matter of life, a matter of existence for Egypt," Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el- said last year. Sissi at the United Nations.
Earlier this year, Sisi relied on US mediation in hopes of reaching a deal, but Ethiopia withdrew from the Trump-sponsored talks, saying a proposed US deal included drought mitigation proposals for Cairo.
"Addis Ababa argued that the deal would commit it to drain its dam's reservoir to an unacceptable level in the event of a prolonged drought, while legally obliging it not to start filling the GERD reservoir without a deal." , according to an analysis by the International Crisis Group.
"Ethiopia will never sign an agreement that will give up its right to use the Nile," Ethiopian Ambassador to the United States Fitsum Arega said.
The last attempt to bring countries to the negotiating table was in June, under the leadership of the African Union, with the United Nations Security Council closely monitoring developments.
A national unity project
In Ethiopia, the success of the GERD project is seen as essential not only to elevate the country's role in the region, but also to unite a fractured nation ravaged by ethnic violence.
Earlier this month, dozens of people were killed in massive protests sparked by the death of singer and activist Hachalu Hundressa. He was a legendary figure of the Oromo ethnic group, which claims to be politically marginalized in the country.
Critics have accused Prime Minister Abiy of failing to bring ethnic violence in the country under control, despite being awarded the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for his role in ending a 20-year civil war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
The dam project has therefore become a national pride. It is fully self-financed, 20% by bonds and 80% by Ethiopian taxpayers, and it shows some success in unifying the country. The #ItsMyDam hashtag was posted on Twitter in Ethiopia last week.
"The Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a national project that [got] support from government, opposition parties and the public as well. It has been a unifying force in Ethiopia because it was built with Ethiopian money, "Addisu Lashitew, a member of the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institute, told CNN.
Despite what appeared to be the end of negotiations last week, the three countries agreed to meet again this week. "There is no other way but to come to an agreement," Lashitew added.
CNN's Sarah El Sirgany, Bethlehem Feleke, Mostafa Salem and Tefera Ghedamu contributed to this report.
