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By now you probably have heard the buzz that has spread a bit around Facebook as of late. According to Public Policy Polling, 17 Republicans are trailing “generic Democrat” opponents and if that holds true to form; the Democrats have a shot at taking the House back. Circumstantial evidence such as the GOP’s rabid unpopularity in the midst of the continuing government shutdown saga has been cited as a reason why its not that farfetched of an idea.
But before we look into the likelihood of Speaker Pelosi, let’s look at how our targeted races are faring according to the poll. The margins we are using are the ones that follow the question of “Would you be less likely or more likely to support Congressman X if you knew he voted to support shutting down major activities of the federal government as a way to stop the health care law from being put into place, or does it not make a difference?”.
- Gary Miller trails Generic Democrat by a 12 point margin
- Jeff Denham trails G.D. by 4 points
- Mike Coffman is down by 10 points
- Rodney Davis trails by 5 points
- Steve Southerland trails by 9 points
- David Valadao is up by 2 points
- Dan Benishek trails by 22 (!) points
- Tim Walberg trails by 9 points
- Kerry Bentivolio trails by 15 points
- Joe Heck is up by 3 points
- Mike Grimm is down by 1 point
- Chris Gibson is down by 6 points
- Tom Reed is down by 6 points
Now this looks all fine and dandy as of now and downright promising. In fact, upon first look at these numbers I couldn’t help but smile and think “hey, is this possible? It has to be too good to be true”.
In all honesty, this is somewhat showing of a few things. Benishek and Bentivolio are in fairly safe Republican districts but the former has underwhelmed in his brief electoral career and the latter is more than likely to be beaten in a primary by a better funded and less “colorful” generic Republican. Still, I find it rather odd to see Benishek down by such a ridiculous amount already.
Also, this poll is not “skewed” but is dependent on messaging. When the poll asks the question it did to get those results, its implying that voters will only hear the Democratic Party’s message and the Republicans will not be able to counter. We have to assume that the Republicans will go back to their playbook of “do you REALLY want Speaker Pelosi again?” and complain about creeping socialism, Sharia, Kardashian, etc. to make Americans fearful of a Democratic-ruled House.
This is also not the best poll as it only says “Generic Democrat” meaning someone who hasn’t offended anyone and only exists in the voter’s minds. The poll didn’t mention challengers such as Pete Aguilar, Andrew Romanoff, Gwen Graham, Ann Callis, Michael Eggman or Jerry Cannon but candidates who exist without a name. That will change, for some it’ll be better and for some it’ll get worse.
Now this isn’t meant to dismay you, as I did Taking Back The House for a reason but if you really want to make some inroads in some of these districts here’s what you can do.
1. Follow/Like These Candidates
- Go back to our database and check out the candidates. Follow them on Twitter and like them on Facebook. The only way we can make these Generic Democrats stand on their own is by rallying around them. If you are in their district/state really consider volunteering for their campaign and donating. The more people in Florida that can donate to Gwen Graham, the better. If you don’t know who Gwen Graham is you have to start doing your part.
2. Contribute
- Money wins politics. That’s a sad fact. As I stated earlier, I’d rather people who were in the same state or district pick a candidate and donate money or time to them. Anything from phone banking to helping the “get out to vote” crowd or even just retweeting a few tweets can make a difference.
3. Be Aware
- Not all candidates are perfect and some might not fit your ideology but if your main goal is to ensure President Obama has a Democratic House for his final two years as President, you must be aware of what it’s going to take.
