Based on current information, I assess – or speculate – on the following scenario as the most likely for developments in Syria:
- In a short time frame of perhaps a few months, the vast majority of Syrians will perceive the fall of al-Assad as positive, and this will be directed at its main implementer, the HTS movement. The movement’s leader, Mohammed al-Golani, has also presented a relatively modern and permissive image of himself, which is supported by his years of activity in Idlib.
- The designation of HTS as a terrorist organization may change as its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has made great efforts over the past decade to distance himself from al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups. The Taliban and HTS insurgents share some ideological similarities with Islamist movements, but their connections are limited. The two groups operate in separate geopolitical contexts: the Taliban focuses on Afghanistan, while HTS is a Syrian insurgent. HTS focuses on local, limited operations, in contrast to ISIS, which seeks a global caliphate. However, HTS could Talibanize Syria by initially presenting a relatively liberal image of itself, but over time, transforming the territory it controls into a theocracy where women and minorities are marginalized.
- After the “honeymoon months”, fundamental ethnic, cultural and religious differences surface, the largest of which are the rebels pushing for an Islamist republic and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a left-wing nationalist force governing northeastern Syria. The SDF sees its mission as fighting to create a secular, democratic and federalized Syria. For Turkey, which supports HTS or its Idlib supporters, a federalist or even independent Kurdistan is not possible and the situation is looking in its direction, allowing an attack on the Syrian Kurdish Rojava, either by Turkey’s own actions or with the support of jihadist movements.
- Economic conflicts of interest will keep Syria unstable for a long time. Which groups will get control of the most modern missiles and chemical weapons, as well as the drug trade, which has been Syria’s most significant and profitable export product.
The article first appeared in the Finnish online publication Ariel-Israelista Suomeksi
