Stock Market Update, Forecast and Outlook Next Week

I had today as the potential stock market top of the chop at the 50 period daily moving average with a possible visit over the average which is happening. However, I am going to set that ego thought aside and be a little slower here. Middle of the chart is dangerous. I would want to enter as short term Wonderwood short on equities on that theory. It is not proper risk management and should instead respect market price and wait for a breakdown. However, I am going to enter a Wonderwood short trade (Entry 162.3, Stop 163) (see names of trades above) with a stop at today's candle high in SPY. This is the attempt at the failure at the 50 period moving average. I will stay short USDJPY with that 100 pip stop around 101.50. As has been discussed in the analysis, above the 50 period daily moving average the forecast and analysis changes. Could be a holiday head fake today in the stock market, or could not be holiday head fake today in the stock market. If my Wonderwood stop gets taken, I will respect market price and this bullish move until it changes and not make predictions. I will just mind the levels and follow the market. Better safe than sorry. Measure twice, cut once, and all that. Short term, longs live above this line. Bulls are alive so far going into the close.  Chart: If my stops get taken, then until that breaks, I will not be short term short USDJPY or Equities. The bulls will live and I will be playing off the middle of the chart looking for a high. The alternate that I posted may be playing out: Transports, June 27 Post.  This would suggest a peak coming into the Middle of July (our July 17-26 time frame). The 50 DMA is the line on the two scenarios. I am not sure which path will be taken, but if today's high is violated, I won't be thinking the bearish stock market path until we break down. Better late than sorry. If I have time I will try to get a market update at the end of next week before I return late July. Hope your summer is well. Peace, Om, SoulJester