RECENT TRADES
Here are the recent analysis and entries and exits that I have been analyzing. Yesterday, I covered my Wonderwood Short position (see Names of Trades tab above). Second Wonderwood Short Position (approx. 3 Spy (30 SPX) points). That is the second successful Wonderwood Short since the top.First Wonderwood Short Position (approx 2.6 Spy (26 SPX) points). In between, I had one stop out at approximately break even, which simply allowed a better entry for the Second Wonderwood Short Position the following day. Stopped out Position (.8 SPY (8 SPX) points).
Today, I entered a speculative Wonderwood Long Position. Wonderwood Long Position. I intended to use today's low as the stop on that Wonderwood Long, but am going without a stop now on that trade for reasons I am about to explain in the Stock Market Outlook below. I am going to add short term Wonderwood Long positions into any additional lows over the next 2 days if we get those lows. If we do not get those lows, I will stay with this current position.
STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK
Below is the chart analysis from this weekend's Stock Market Update for Week of June 3:
In that post we identified the 1613 "rough" area as potential support. That was based upon the March to May 2012 fractal. As we have traded a smidgen below that fractal, today's low of 1607 is important. I have changed the chart to eliminate they March to May 2012 possibility, which is very helpful as it means we are likely going to get a lower low before we get a higher high.
Here is the new chart:
Okay. So, here is the current Stock Market thesis. If today's low holds then we are likely going to follow that Pink Line Scenario up towards a double top before resuming downwards. If it does not hold, I estimate we probably have 2 days left of this sell at most and will add into those lows with short term Wonderwood Long positions against my longer term RLS Blog Short positions (see Blog Performance Tab above) that are positioned for the back test of the November low. This is a binary moment. That is why I am entering speculative positions short term long starting end of day today.
These are not so much prediction, as possibilities. Road maps I can follow until the market presently deviates from one of the scenarios. These fractals and direction analysis allow me to stay present and see all possibilities. As you know, if you have followed this blog, I don't think anybody really can predict the future. I think we can take present data points, develop the likely outcomes and then determine when those outcomes are no longer probable based upon present data. I don't make these possibilities up; instead, they are developed from looking across many different market indicators and determining the likely 2 or 3 top scenarios. From a patience standpoint, they also greatly assist me with timing and staying patient.
Stock Market Trend and Direction is still technically up off the November 2012 low on the major indexes, but we are close to getting a bearish cross. So, I am being careful and booking the 30 points on the short term Wonderwood trades when I get them rather than trying to get all the points on those trades as I have discussed.
CURRENCY UPDATE
As for the other trade I am tracking, the USDJPY short position, here is the status. The initial USDJPY Post. Yesterday, I harvested profit on that trade and have only a runner position left. Harvest Post. Here is the current chart where you can see we are at the lower channel line that may, or may not, provide support initially. This is consistent with the binary moment in equities discussed above.
I will consider re shorting back into a fuller position if we get a substantial retrace along with equities.
SUMMARY
This is all consistent with the overall thesis which I have been tracking and not deviating from. I will do a thesis update this weekend.
In the meantime, here are some Recent Thesis Updates: Important Thesis Update and Et tu Price? Is a Hard Rain Gonna Fall?
In the colume to the right are some free chart links that I use so please feel free to use them. In addition, there are links to friend's sites (Albertarock's has a Hindenburgh Omen update) and some polls that I created and find interesting (please vote if you find the poll information interesting.
Peace. Om.,
SoulJester
