[Special Edition] June, 2014: Energy Stats, Trends and Perspectives

During the last month, several organizations have published reports on various aspects of the world’s energy sector. In this article, we have looked at some of the key highlights of the reports and grouped them by topic. The purpose of this is to provide a snapshot-style look at the world’s energy as it is currently viewed by the authors of the said works.

General Trends and Perspectives

Global primary energy consumption increased by 2.3% in 2013, growing faster than in 2012 (+1.8%) but below the 10-year average of 2.5% [1].
Global economic growth is assumed to average at 3% per year until 2040; energy demand is expected to grow by 1.3% on average, reflecting an expected and continued improvement in energy efficiencies [2].
Global CO₂ emissions are expected to continue to grow until oil (and coal) demand peaks somewhere around 2030 [2].
The global renewable energy share can reach and exceed 30% by 2030. Doubling renewable energy to 36% of global energy consumption will reduce the global demand for oil and gas by approximately 15% and for coal by 26%. However, business-as-usual will only result in an increase of this share from 18% in 2010 to 21% by 2030 [3].
Meeting the world’s growing need for energy will require more than $48 trillion in investment in energy supply over the period to 2035. Today’s annual investment in energy supply of $1.6 trillion needs to rise steadily over the coming decades towards $2 trillion. Annual spending on energy efficiency, measured against a 2012 baseline, needs to rise from $130 billion today to more than $550 billion by 2035 [4].

Renewables

According to Bloomberg, renewable power generation capacity in 2013 made up 13.7% of world generation capacity, up from 12.6% in 2012, and accounted for 8.5% of world generation, up from 7.8% in 2012. Investments in new renewable generation assets made up more than 40% of worldwide investments in all generation assets in 2013 as in 2012 [2].
Nine percent of total final energy consumption is modern renewable energy, and up to another 9% is traditional biomass (mainly used for heating), of which only part is sustainable, resulting in a total renewable energy share of 18% in 2010 [3].
Renewable energy sources (excluding hydropower)—in power generation as well as transport—continued to increase in 2013, reaching a record 2.7% of global energy consumption, up from 0.8% a decade ago. Renewable energy accounted for more than 5% of global electricity production for the first time, and 15% of EU power generation [1].
Hydropower makes up the largest share of renewable electricity generation by a wide margin [2, 3].
On 2013, global hydroelectric output grew by a below average 2.9%, and accounted for 6.7% of global energy consumption [1].
In the OECD area the bulk of hydropower resources has already been developed. Outside the OECD area the situation is different. OECD generation is assumed to grow by 0.6% per year between 2010 and 2040, Chinese and other non-OECD generation by averages of 3.1% and 2.4% per year, respectively [2].
Global investments in wind power declined by 6% in 2012 and by another 1% in 2013. Investments in solar power dropped by almost 10% in 2012 and plummeted by more than 20% in 2013 [2].
Globally, wind energy (+20.7%) once again accounted for more than half of renewable power generation growth and solar power generation grew even more rapidly (+33%), but from a smaller base [1].
Global biofuels production grew by a below-average 6.1% [1].
In 2013, approximately 6.5 million people were employed in the renewable energy industry (excluding hydropower except for small hydropower) worldwide [7].
In 2013, the solar photovoltaic sector accounted for 2.3 million jobs. Liquid biofuels, modern biomass and biogas were large employers (1.4 million, 0.8 million and 0.3 million). Wind employment remained relatively stable at 0.8 million jobs [7].
China remains the largest employer in renewable energy sector in 2013 [7].

Fossil Fuels and Nuclear Energy

Global oil consumption grew by 1.4 million barrels per day (b/d), or 1.4% in 2013. Oil remains the world’s leading fuel, with 32.9% of global energy consumption [1].
In 2013, U.S. tight oil production powered ahead with an additional 0.7 mbd gain [2]. The US (+1.1 million b/d) oil production recorded the largest growth in the world and the largest annual increment in the country’s history for a second consecutive year [1].
Looking forward, most underlying dynamics indicate that US tight oil production will continue to rise strongly up to 2020. Further growth should bring US tight oil production towards 5 mbd by 2020 [2].
The unconventional oil revolution is likely to expand beyond North America before the end of the decade. By 2019, tight oil supply outside the United States could reach 650 000 barrels per day (650 kb/d), including 390 kb/d from Canada [5].
Global proved reserves of oil increased to 1687.9 billion barrels at the end of 2013, sufficient to meet 53.3 years of global production [1].
Coal consumption grew by 3% in 2013, well below the 10-year average of 3.9% but it is still the fastest-growing fossil fuel. Coal’s share of global primary energy consumption reached 30.1%, the highest since 1970 [1].
Global coal consumption is expected to increase by 36% between 2010 and 2040 with the strongest growth taking place in India [2].
In 2013, world natural gas consumption grew by 1.4%, below the historical average of 2.6%. Globally, natural gas accounted for 23.7% of primary energy consumption [1].
Global natural gas demand is expected to rise by 2.2% per year by 2019, Chinese natural gas demand will increase by 90%. While China will remain a significant importer, half of its new gas demand will be met by domestic resources, most of them unconventional [6].
LNG trade is expected to grow by 40% to reach 450 bcm by 2019 [6].
Global proved reserves of natural gas increased to 185.7 trillion cubic meters (tcm), sufficient to meet 54.8 years of global production [1].
Global nuclear output grew by 0.9%, the first increase since 2010. Nuclear output accounted for 4.4% of global energy consumption, the smallest share since 1984 [1].

References

1. Statistical Review of World Energy 2014, BP
2. Energy Perspectives 2014, Statoil
3. REmap 2030, IRENA
4. World Energy Investment Outlook, IEA
5. Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2014, IEA
6. Medium-Term Gas Market Report 2014, IEA
7. Renewable Energy and Jobs – Annual Review 2014, IRENA