GLOBAL demand for Solar PV is set to rise from 29GW to 31GW this year, a growth of 7%.
For the first time China will outpace Germany to become the leading PV consumer, with China, Japan, and India accounting for 36% of global demand.
The top 10 PV territories will still account for 83% of global PV demand according to the new NPD Solarbuzz Marketbuzz 2013.
Michael Barker, senior analyst at NPD Solarbuzz said: “In 2013, we expect to see improvement in the market fundamentals that enable PV demand to return to double-digit growth. Installed-system prices will continue to fall, and PV will become increasingly cost competitive across regions with high electricity rates, shortages in domestic supply, and growing renewable obligations to fulfill.”
However, while worldwide sales have increased, demand in Europe has dropped due to further premium incentive reductions.
In contrast, new policies across leading PV countries in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, lead by China, Japan, and India, will stimulate regional growth of over 50% and account for more than 11 GW of PV demand in 2013.
Mr Barker added: “2013 will represent another transition year, as the PV industry adjusts to softness across legacy European markets. The Chinese end-market will largely compensate for the downturn in demand from Germany, which previously led PV demand.”
According to the NPD Solarbuzz report, new PV opportunities from the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia, the Caribbean, and other emerging regions will have a stronger impact on global demand from 2014 onwards.
Emerging regions are forecast to account for less than 8% of global demand during 2013; however, this market share is expected to double by 2017, driven primarily by South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Israel, and Mexico.
Ground-mount installations will dominate the market in 2013 with 45% of PV demand. These installations are being driven by policies that favour utility-based deployment. Strongly influenced by Japan, Germany, Australia, Italy, and the UK, overall market share for residential PV in 2013 will remain above 20%.
These five countries will account for three-quarters of all residential PV installations this year, which highlights a broad geographic pull and emphasizes the continued importance of distributed generation.
