AT last week’s St Petersburg International Economic Forum, Vladimir Putin’s flagship economic conference, a pair of guests raised Russia’s increasingly fervent hopes for a rapprochement with the European Union. Matteo Renzi, Italy’s prime minister, regaled the crowd with references to shared cultural history. The European Commission’s president, Jean-Claude Juncker, chided Russia for its aggression in Ukraine, but also spoke of building bridges. Nonetheless, when the sanctions come up for re-approval at the end of this month, the EU looks set to extend the toughest ones until January 2017.
The EU is holding the line on sanctions with strong backing from Germany, despite the usual squabbling. But questions remain about their effectiveness. Some Western critics say the sanctions merely allow American and European governments to show that they are doing something, without changing Russia’s behavior or helping to stabilise Ukraine.
American diplomats argue that the sanctions deterred Russia from seizing more Ukrainian territory in 2014. In fact, new offensives were launched long after the sanctions were in place. More…
