You may remember the bearish count on small caps I have been tracking. This count has a triangle in the wave two position of a large ABC up. A triangle in the wave two position is bearish. This count has completed and now with today's down move, we have a lower weekly low. This count anticipates long term five waves down to break the 2009 low. Here is the chart:
We are a long way from confirming a long term trend change. However, if this count is right, it is very bearish long term. The first test for this count will be the November 2012 low (the CYAN colored B on the chart). If that pivot fails, this count really comes into play. From here, it is a beautiful exhaustion play with an easy weekly stop. Here is a close up of the weekly candles:
I know this sounds like doom and gloom. It is not intended to be. I have been tracking a more long term bullish move because of trend. However, that triangle has always appeared the better labelling to me. Time will tell.
There is always a bull path and a bear path. We cannot know for certain which path our future will choose. As always, do your own due diligence, read the disclaimer, and make your own investment decisions.
Peace, Om,
SoulJester
