Today, I am writing to comment on future changes in mining rates based on the white paper.
As everyone knows, out of the total issuance of 100 billion, the supply allocated to mining contributors among the community is 65 billion.
Of these, about 30 billion have been mined so far, but KYCed is confirmed and the supply to be transferred to the mainnet is expected to be between 10 and 20 billion as mentioned by the core team. Therefore, we will apply it to the simulation with two band lines, with a minimum of 10 billion and a maximum of 20 billion.As mentioned in the white paper, the changed mining formula will be applied at a certain point in time starting with KYC. (Please refer to the white paper for the formula.)
From this point on, based on the annual supply, for example, if 1000 coins are supplied, divide this by 365 days, and the daily supply will be 2.74 coins. Based on this daily supply, it is divided according to the mining formula for each pioneer currently mining. Then, assuming that the above 10 billion and 20 billion were mined, let's look at the annual supply based on 45 billion and 55 billion, respectively.
In addition, since the annual supply year to be reflected in this case has no choice but to be applied through the forecast, an arbitrary branch was selected. The rationale is as follows.
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In the node compensation formula, the 10-year arithmetic average is set on the assumption that the 10-year average value comes out as the maximum period and is supplied for 10 years. (Can be mined for a total of 10 years)
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Many people think that the maximum lock-up period is 3 years, meaning that mining will be guaranteed for 3 years, so the arithmetic average of 3 years is used. (Can be mined for a total of 3 years)
Some Reddit comments suggested that they had an annual supply plan for 100 years. However, considering that the white paper also establishes an inflation policy to supply additional coins in case of excessive or insufficient circulation due to an increase in users, the number of 100 years is judged to be meaningless, so we will calculate the maximum supply period as 10 years.
1. Mining rate A type (supply for 3 years)
#45 billion can be mined: 45 billion / 3 / 365 = 41,095,890 per day supply
: Pioneers 40 million = 1.027 minable per day on average (30.81 per month)
: Pioneers 50 million = 0.821 minable per day on average (24.63 per month)
: 100 million pioneers = 0.410 minable per day on average (12.31 per month)
#55 billion mining possible: 55 billion / 3 / 365 = 50,228,310 supply per day
: Pioneers 40 million = 1.255 minable per day on average (37.65 per month)
: Pioneers 50 million = 1.004 minable per day on average (30.12 per month)
: 100 million pioneers = 0.502 minable per day on average (15.06 per month)
2. Mining rate B type (supplied for 10 years)
#45 billion can be mined: 45 billion / 10 / 365 = 12,328,767 per day supply
: Pioneers 40 million = 0.308 minable per day on average (9.24 per month)
: Pioneer 50 million = 0.246 minable per day on average (7.38 per month)
: 100 million pioneers = 0.123 minable per day on average (3.69 per month)
#55 billion mining possible: 55 billion / 10 / 365 = 15,068,493 supply per day
: Pioneer 40 million = 0.376 minable per day on average (11.28 per month)
: Pioneer 50 million = 0.301 minable per day on average (9.03 per month)
: 100 million pioneers = 0.150 minable per day on average (4.5 per month)
As you can see from the calculation results above, the number of pioneers has reached the maximum of 100 million, but it is a self-evident reason that it will rapidly exceed within the next one to two years. In addition, the result of the above result is the average value of all pioneers, so in the case of a new miner who only has 100% shield, it will not even reach 50% of the above result. If you look at the formula in the white paper, you will see B.
M = { 1 + I(L,S) + E(I) + N(I) + A(I) + X} B
Here, B is a value such as a constant determined by dynamically calculating the competitive relationship between pioneers mining on the same day for a fixed amount of supply per day. So that B is the 0.0254 value seen in the current simulation.
However, as in the calculation result above, since it is the result of the overall average without the competition formula among the pioneers, miners with an above-average mining speed will mine more than the result, and miners with an average below the average will not get the result. This is affected by the number of sessions (total mining days), the number of recommended arguments, the presence of nodes, and the lockup rate.
The talk got long.
Let me conclude.
If you are accustomed to the current mining speed and decide that you will be mining hundreds of coins a month in the future, it is a big mistake.
Even if you calculate with only 55 billion remaining mining amount and 3 years mining period, it is only 30 coins per month. If it exceeds 100 million users, 15 would be difficult. In the case of a typical Pioneer, if you work hard for a month as soon as you exceed 100 million users, you will be able to mine about 10.
Keep mining while mining rate is high!
