Debate Magazine

Seems Plausible

Posted on the 09 April 2021 by Markwadsworth @Mark_Wadsworth

The BBC's headline is: Covid: UK vaccine rollout 'breaking link' between infections and death.
Seems plausible to me. I took the stat's on new daily cases and new daily deaths from, overlapped them and shifted deaths back by about two weeks to get the best match. The brown line for 'deaths' is clearly dropping much faster than the blue line for 'cases':
Seems plausible The alternative explanation is that all the really susceptible people have already succumbed, anybody who's survived this far is resistant or immune.
Obviously, neither case numbers nor death numbers are accurate in absolute terms, but as long as the stat's are compiled consistently, the trend is reliable.
Interestingly, assuming the stat's to be reliable, the death rate appears to be about 2.5% (much higher than often assumed) i.e. if there are 1,000 new cases today, there will be 25 new deaths today in two weeks (or whatever the lag is between diagnosis and death).

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