Debate Magazine

Schrodinger's Brexit

Posted on the 01 August 2019 by Markwadsworth @Mark_Wadsworth

From the BBC:-

Currently, British farmers do not face tariffs when selling into Europe, but in the event of a no-deal Brexit the same products would have tariffs of between 40% and 50% applied.
That would make them much more expensive and less attractive to European buyers, leading to fears the market for British lamb on the European mainland would collapse, forcing some British farmers out of business.

From the Telegraph:-
Turkey twizzlers could be back on school dinner menu because of food shortages after a no deal exit from the European Union, following a new Government warning.

We're simultaneously going to have food shortages in this country AND farmers who don't have anyone wanting to buy their food. Right.
Personally, I find the idea of moving lamb, beef or cheese around Europe to be rather odd. Most exports are either about climate (like we can't grow pineapples in England) or specialisation (it's more expensive to build another Ferrari factory than just transport them). It's not really specialised to produce beef or even most cheese. We make brie in Somerset, there's cows grazing all over Normandy. Which leads me to think that where there's a profit advantage to exporting lamb to Europe, it's probably very small compared to selling it here. The idea that the farmers will be throwing out lambs rather than selling to a supermarket for a smaller profit is ridiculous.

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