Well, the waiting is over. Bernie Sanders has announced that he is running for the Democratic presidential nomination. He joins 11 other candidates in a field that's already crowded, and probably will become even more crowded.Will he do as well as he did in 2016? Could he actually capture the Democratic nomination? I doubt it, and here's why:
* He's not a Democrat, and has refused all efforts from the Democratic Party to have him join. He wants to use the party's nominating apparatus, but doesn't want to wear the party label. That irritates a lot of Democrats.
* A lot of Democrats still blame him for Trump becoming president. His lies about Clinton, and his very tepid support of her after losing the nomination, have not been forgotten by Democrats.
* In 2016, he was able to pose himself as the only progressive in the race. It wasn't true, since Clinton supported many progressive ideas, but that became the meme for many news outlets. He won't be able to do that in 2020. There are already several progressives in the race with good credentials (Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, etc.). Progressives have too many other options in 2020.
* He's still carrying the baggage of his campaign's misogyny in 2016. He has yet to satisfactoriily explain why that happened, and why he didn't deal with it. It's not enough to say he didn't know about it. A candidate needs to know what his own campaign is doing.
* He has not demonstrated that he can get a substantial portion of the Black vote, which is critical for a Democratic candidate. And there are credible Black candidates running this time.
* Democratic Party rules have changed. Sanders did better in caucuses than he did in primaries in 2016, but there will be four or five less caucuses in 2020 (as several states have gone from the caucus system to a primary system). Even Iowa, which kept its caucus, is allowing votes from people unable or unwilling to attend the caucus. These changes are not going to help Sanders.
Sanders seems to think the magic of his 2016 run is still there. I don't think it is. I think he's in for a rude awakening.
