Basketball teams spend substantial resources focusing on rebounding; whether it's at the offensive or defensive basket. In fact, basketball players' draft positions tend to rise significantly based on their rebounding skills alone.
Hockey on the other hand, has put little thought into the act of regaining puck control following an attempted shot. Sure, players are continuously reminded to go to the net in search of rebounds, but what about those shots that don't even make it on the net? Is there value in recovering pucks off of shots that are blocked, or missed the net?
An estimated 50% (plus or minus 2%) of attempted shots actually make it to the net. The exact average for the Montreal Canadiens this season is 50.9%. The success-rate getting shots through from the slot is 67.8%, while the average for shots that are attempted from outside the slot is 45.7%.
Considering the fact that the Montreal shooters have scored with 3.5% of their attempted even-strength shots, this leaves 1397 rebound opportunities this season (46.6 per/game); 47.4% coming as the result of a rebound produced from a save, and the other 49.1% from shots that are either blocked or missed the net.
Breaking this down into usable numbers we find that Habs players' shots produce an average of 22.1 offensive-rebounds per-game following a save by the opposition goalie, and 22.9 offensive-zone loose-pucks following a shot that is either blocked or misses the net. Of these potential loose-pucks, the Habs recover 9.1 loose-pucks per-60 following a save by the opposition goalie, and 12.6 per-60 following a blocked or missed shot. As a percentage of available loose-pucks this shows us that Montreal recovers an average of 46.6% of the available loose-pucks that occur following an attempted shot on net.
Montreal players have recovered more loose-pucks following attempted shots during games where they've enjoyed an advantage in shot attempts. Looking at those 46.6 (average) loose-pucks available per-game following an attempted shot, we see that in games where Montreal has produced a corsi-for% over 50% they have recovered 10.8 loose pucks per-60 following a save by the opposition goalie; compared to 7.6 per-60 during games where their CF% drops below 50%. They have also recovered 15.8 loose-pucks per-60 following a blocked or missed shot-attempt in games where their CF% is above 50%; compared to 9.9 per-60 when their CF% drops below 50%.
This increase in recovered loose-pucks can be partly explained by the increase shot-attempt totals when the Habs CF% is above 50%; more attempted shots obviously mean more opportunities for a loose-puck following a rebound, blocked or missed shot. That said, the percentage of blocked or missed shots that are recovered also increases when the Habs CF% goes above 50%. In fact, the Habs have recovered 43.9% of blocked/missed shots during games where their CF% climbs above 50%, but only 41.6% of blocked/missed shots when their CF% drops below 50%.
A similar trend is displayed when we compare games where the Habs produced more even-strength scoring-chances than the opposition, with games where they were out-chanced. Montreal recovered an average of 10.4 loose-pucks per-60 following a save by the opposition goalie during games where they enjoyed a scoring-chance advantage; compared to 7.9 per-60 when they were out-chances. Similarly, the Habs recovered an average of 13.9 loose-pucks following a blocked/missed shots when they out-chanced the opposition at even-strength; compared to 11.9 when they were out-chanced.
In terms of individual players, Jiri Sekac leads all Montreal players in this metric, as he's recovered an average of 7.12 loose-pucks per-60 minutes of even-strength ice-time following a Montreal shot attempt. Thomas Plekanec is just behind Sekac with an average of 7.08 per-60. Among defensemen with substantial ice-time, Andrei Markov has averaged the most LPR's in this category. That said, Nathan Beaulieu's numbers in this metric are particularly intriguing.
Logic tells us there is value in second-chances. This metric attempts to quantify that value by focusing on the number of loose-pucks a team recovers following a shot attempt.
