In Warsaw, protracted negotiations are taking place between representatives of 190 countries as the world prepares to hit the ‘Play’ button on tackling climate change, which has stalled since the Copenhagen summit failed to replace the Kyoto Treaty in 2009. The Warsaw meeting will set the foundations of a universal climate change agreement to be agreed in Paris in 18 months’ time. Just as well then, given the dire warnings in the recent IPCC report, that delegates are reporting an air of “realism” at the meeting.
But wait a minute: definitions of realism vary. In this case, to be ‘realistic’ is to back watered down proposals such as there being no universal target on greenhouse gas emission reduction. No, this hugely important summit in 2015 is set to establish international monitoring of nationally-set reduction targets. Accordingly, nations like China and the US (which are responsible for 55% of global CO2 emissions between them) could set negligible reductions with zero incentive to be ambitious.
Now, if that is the best that the world can do, I’d say that there’s a deficit of realism. Realism about the scale of the problem and how quickly it needs tackling. The time for half measures was in the ’90s and ’00s, when we still had time for them. Alas, public and political will for a green revolution was so feeble at the time that quarter-measures were taken instead, and now action will have to be taken at breakneck speed if the temperature rise is to be kept below the all-important 2°C level (that’s 4°F) that would trigger chronic droughts, flooding and food shortages. Not that I see any prospect of the global community coming to its senses in the near future.
Progress is coming, but it’s achingly gradual. Even in the US, it’s becoming more and more difficult to cite junk science proof of the climate change ‘scam’ and retain politico-scientific (and if that’s not a word, it certainly is now!) credibility. Renewable energy is now beginning to have a real impact on global oil dependency. Personal habits are changing, with adoption of reusable bags and cycling, to name just two examples, undergoing dramatic growth.
The world’s intentions are good. We just need to step on the proverbial accelerator.
