Debate Magazine

Quarantine Madness

Posted on the 15 September 2020 by Markwadsworth @Mark_Wadsworth

At my daughter's school, one of the pupils in Year 8 had Covd-19 symptoms or tested positive (not sure). As a result, the whole of Year 8 has to stay at home for two weeks. I assume that this also applies to all teachers who gave a lesson with that pupil in it (she wasn't sure).
I don't know whether the school is under some legal obligation to do this, or whether they are overreacting to cover their arses, but this is surely madness?
There are one hundred pupils in each Year plus two dozen teachers. Mass Covid-19 testing indicates that about 2% of people test positive. So if they actually tested everybody in a whole Year and all the teachers regularly, the probability that at least one tests positive is over 90% (1 minus 0.98^124).
On that basis, most pupils and most teachers will be in quarantine most of the time (there is no test yet to see whether people have had it and are immune AFAIAA), so they might as well continue doing online lessons and everybody stays at home.


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