Putin's illegal war is not going well. He's got nearly his entire army committed to Ukraine and still has not taken that country after three weeks of fighting. Now he's asking Syrians to come and fight for him, and trying to enlist mercenaries to help. It makes one wonder whether he could actually lose the war to Ukraine!That's what Francis Fukuyama thinks at americanpurpose.com. Here's part of what he had to say:
I’ll stick my neck out and make several prognostications:
- Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.
- The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.
- There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.
