The number of prostate cancer cases worldwide is expected to double between 2020 and 2040, a new analysis shows.
The data shows that the annual number of prostate cancer cases is expected to rise from 1.4 million in 2020 to 2.9 million in 2040.
And annual deaths from the disease are expected to increase by 85% to nearly 700,000 over the same period, especially among men in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
An aging population and rising life expectancy will lead to a greater number of older men in the coming years.
The main risk factors for prostate cancer - such as being 50 years or older and having a family history of the disease - are unavoidable, so it will not be possible to prevent the coming increase in cases through lifestyle changes or interventions in the area of public health, the researchers said. to suggest.
The Lancet Commission on prostate cancer argues that the informed choice program of prostate cancer screening with testing, which is common in high-income countries (HICs), can lead to overtesting and unnecessary treatment in older men, and to undertesting in high-income countries. -risk younger men.
Instead, the authors advocate early detection programs for people at high risk.
The committee also calls for urgent programs to raise awareness of prostate cancer and improvements in early diagnosis and treatment in LMICs.
More research is needed among men of different ethnic groups, especially those of West African descent, the researchers say.
Prostate cancer is a leading cause of death and disability, accounting for 15% of all cancer cases in men.
In Britain it is the second most common cause of cancer deaths in men and the most common cancer in men in more than half the countries in the world.
Data shows that there were an estimated 56,780 cases of prostate cancer in 2020 and this is expected to increase to 75,066 cases in 2040 (if incidence rates remain the same), an increase of 32% over twenty years.
If there were a 1% decline per year until 2040, as the study predicts for the Northern Europe region, the predicted number would still increase to 61,397 new cases in 2040, an increase of 8% over 20 years.
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With a 1% annual increase in the number of cases, the predicted number would reach 91,544 by 2040, an increase of 61% over 20 years.
Nick James, lead author of the committee, professor of prostate and bladder cancer research at the Institute of Cancer Research in London, said: "As more and more men around the world reach middle and old age, there will be an inevitable increase in the number the number of cases of prostate cancer.
"We know this wave of cases is coming, so we need to start planning and taking action now.
"Evidence-based interventions, such as improved early detection and education programs, will help save lives and prevent poor health from prostate cancer in the years to come.
"This is especially true for low- and middle-income countries, which will bear the overwhelming burden of future cases."
In HICs, screening for prostate cancer often includes the PSA test, a blood test that measures the levels of a protein called prostate-specific antigen (PSA).
The current approach to prostate cancer diagnosis in the UK and many other HICs is based on 'informed choice' PSA testing.
Men aged 50 or older without symptoms can request a PSA test from their doctor, after a discussion of the risks and benefits.
According to the committee, there are indications that this approach leads to overtesting in older men with a low risk, but does not increase the detection of prostate cancer in younger men with a higher risk.
Instead, the authors recommend using MRI scans in combination with PSA testing to screen men at high risk for prostate cancer in HICs.
This includes people with a family history of the disease, people of African descent, and people who carry the BRCA2 mutation.
The experts say new approaches are needed to enable earlier diagnosis in LMICs as most men in these countries present with advanced disease where the cancer has spread to other parts of the body, often to the bones.
Men with late-stage prostate cancer are much less likely to survive for a long period of time than men who are diagnosed early.
Professor James, who is also a clinical oncologist at the Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, added: "With prostate cancer we cannot wait for people to feel ill and seek help - we need to encourage testing in those who feel well but have a high have blood pressure. increase the risk of the disease so that fatal prostate cancer can be detected early.
"Pop-up clinics and mobile testing offer cost-effective solutions that combine health screenings and education."
The experts suggest that a major obstacle to better prostate cancer care in least developed countries is the lack of trained staff and specialized facilities.
Urgent measures are therefore needed to build up surgical and radiotherapy capacity in these countries, they say.
Alfred Samuels, 66, is a black man who was diagnosed with stage 4 advanced prostate cancer at the age of 54.
He said: "This report is long overdue.
"I fully agree that we need a targeted approach to screen people at higher risk, such as black men - this would be invaluable.
"Because of the late stage in which I was diagnosed with prostate cancer, I wouldn't be here today if I hadn't had access to a clinical trial - it was my lifeline.
"Now it should be mandatory to record ethnicity in clinical trials, and trials should reflect the ethnic diversity of the population so we can find better treatments for people like me."
The committee will be launched on Saturday during the 39th annual congress of the European Association of Urology.
Naser Turabi, director of evidence and implementation at Cancer Research UK, said: "This study reflects the impact of a growing, aging population on the increasing number of people diagnosed with prostate cancer worldwide. Here in Britain, cases have risen by around 150% in the last 25 years.
"We support the Lancet's call for more research into the early detection of prostate cancer. Cancer Research UK funds studies to help us find ways to diagnose the disease early, and studies are also taking place to find the best treatment for men with prostate cancer.
