(Warsaw) Outgoing Polish President, conservative and populist Andrzej Duda, was narrowly re-elected for a new five-year term, but the excellent result of his rival, the pro-European liberal mayor of Warsaw Rafal Trzaskowski, puts the ruling party on the defensive.
Stanislaw WASZAK
France Media Agency
The re-election of Mr. Duda cannot be considered a great success because of its narrowness, analysts said on Monday: he obtained 51, 03% of votes against 48, 97% for Mr. Trzaskowski, according to the final official results of the Election Commission.
M. Duda received congratulations via Twitter from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who is looking forward to "working with him on the many challenges that Europe and Poland are facing together".
This electoral victory "is a small success," said political scientist Kazimierz Kik of the University of Kielce. "President Duda certainly won the election, but the real success belongs to Rafal Trzaskowski and the opposition, who are regaining ground," he told AFP.
PHOTO CZAREK SOKOLOWSKI, ASSOCIATED PRESS
Rafal Trzaskowski
"Poland is emerging from this fractured election. It will be difficult to reconnect with the Poles, "he added.
After a very polarizing campaign led by Andrzej Duda, very strongly supported by the government and the public media, the president played the reconciliation card on Monday.
"Please observe mutual respect," he said to his constituents in Odrzywol, to 54 km south of Warsaw.
M. Duda won with the voices of traditional and Catholic Poland, that of the countryside and small villages, while Mr. Trzaskowski received the voices of pro-European and liberal Poles in large and medium-sized towns.
"The PiS (the ruling Law and Justice party) is at its maximum. It is clear that he is weakening from one election to the next, "added Kik.
According to him, this party must carry out "now or never" its program consisting in "keeping a conservative and traditional Poland".
"Stagnation"
The PiS will however have to face strong opposition, as well as an economic crisis that Poland should not be long in feeling following the epidemic of coronavirus, from which it has not yet emerged, emphasize also analysts.
"We are entering a difficult period," said economist Witold Orlowski. "Technically, PiS remains in power, but support for its policy will only go down. [...] In the context of the economic crisis, it will be difficult for him to carry out his generous welfare policy which brought him to power, "he said.
"Stagnation awaits Poland. The Poles have not opted for the change proposed by Rafal Trzaskowski, "political analyst Stanislaw Mocek, president of Collegium Civitas, told AFP. "We certainly cannot expect relations with Brussels to improve," he said.
"More independence"
The outgoing president has bet on Donald Trump's good relations with the United States.
A possible electoral defeat for President Trump in November would mean the failure of PiS foreign policy, according to Kazimierz Kik.
For its part, the liberal opposition is now on the rise. "Rafal Trzaskowski's very good result gives him the opportunity to become a key figure in the liberal opposition," said TVN television 14 political scientist Andrzej Rychard.
By congratulating Mr. Duda on his score, the mayor of Warsaw wished him to show from now on "more independence in front of his party" and his indisputable leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski.
