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Oscars: The Race So Far

Posted on the 03 December 2014 by Sirmac2 @macthemovieguy

I spent the morning updating my Awards Tracker page. A few titles have fallen completely out of the race. I don’t believe Rosewater is a contender for anything other than perhaps a dark horse for Best Adapted Screenplay. It just isn’t getting the right amount of traction. Other films seem to be losing steam as new contenders are gaining steam.

For Best Picture:
Right now, Boyhood remains a lock. It’s amazing that a film that came out over the summer can still dominate the conversation the way Boyhood has. Whether or not it wins is another debate. Birdman is a huge contender now, and two new entries are picking up steam (Selma and Unbroken). Gone Girl is probably a lock for a nomination at least, and The Imitation Game is adored by critics. Interstellar has a good shot, because those who loved it really loved it, and it just needs a certain percentage of 1st place votes to get nominated (it won’t win). That leaves a few darkhorses for best picture, like Foxcatcher, A Most Violent Year, American Sniper, Inherent Vice, The Grand Budapest Hotel, and a few others.

For Best Director:
We might actually see two female director nominees this year with Angelina Jolie and Ava DuVernay for Unbroken and Selma. Richard Linklater is a lock, and Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu is basically a lock. The last spot I think will go to David Fincher, a high profile name who directed one of the years biggest movies. Clint Eastwood is also a strong contender, and someone like Morten Tyldum or JC Chandor could also sneak in.

For Best Actor:
It’s a big race, but it’s a race most people agree on. There’s a ton of dark horses here, and just like last year, the Oscars might not nominate the front running five (as Robert Redford learned). Most people agree that Michael Keaton is a lock for Birdman, and there’s a ton of talk about Steve Carell for Foxcatcher. I can’t see the Oscars snubbing Eddie Redmayne for The Theory Of Everything or Benedict Cumberbatch for The Imitation Game. That leaves one spot, which I think could go to Timothy Spall for Mr Turner. He’s often overlooked, and if the film isn’t seen by enough people, it’s possible he could go overlooked to someone like Ben Affleck for Gone Girl or Bradley Cooper for American Sniper. Another wrench is David Oyelowo for Selma, who is getting high praise for playing Martin Luther King Jr.

For Best Actress:
Not really a deep race. Reese Witherspoon is a lock for Wild. Julianne Moore is a lock for Still Alice. Rosamund Pike is a sure thing for Gone Girl. Felicity Jones looks pretty solid for A Theory Of Everything. For the fifth spot I’m going with Amy Adams for Big Eyes right now, but there are a bunch of women who could make that change. Specifically, Jennifer Aniston in Cake, if her film gets enough traction.

For Best Supporting Actor:
JK Simmons remains the talk of the town here, with Edward Norton nipping at his heels. The big question is where will Channing Tatum be pushed? He has no shot in Best Actor, but if they submit him as supporting actor, he could change up the race. Mark Ruffalo is still a contender, as is Ethan Hawke for Boyhood, and Robert Duvall for The Judge. Another possible dark horse is korean popstar Miyavi, who is gaining attention for Unbroken.

For Best Supporting Actress:
Patricia Arquette is safe for now, but she has to contend with Keira Knightley and Emma Stone, who have remained frontrunners for their films. Meryl Streep is in this race too, and it’s hard to see them passing up a nomination for her. Jessica Chastain is also a popular choice, and Laura Dern is getting attention for Wild.

For Best Animated Feature:
Unless a small animated film we haven’t really seen upsets this race, the five nominees will be: The Lego Movie, How To Train Your Dragon 2, Big Hero 6, The Boxtrolls, and Book Of Life. I think Book Of Life is the most vulnerable here, but I don’t know what film would knock it out.

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