Lars Eller is a minus-7 player on a team with an 8-2-1 record. He has 1 goal and 1 assist in 11 games. He's in the doghouse among both the Montreal media, and with his coach and General Manager, as well (if we take media reports at face-value). All that is damning statistical (and hysterical) evidence, showing a player on his way toward the press box, or even the minors.
And all that is absolute bollocks.
In terms of ice-time, Eller actually averages only the seventh-most even-strength minutes per-game among forwards, and the eighth-most powerplay minutes per-game among forwards. At even-strength he has the lowest offensive-zone start percentage of any Habs centreman not named Manny Malhotra. He also faces a higher level of competition than any other centre, while his number one linemate this season has been Rene Bourque. The same Bourque with the third-lowest even-strength rating of any Habs player; to go along with below average numbers in every even-strength possession and defensive metrics in all 3 zones.
As with most things, Eller's reality lies somewhere in between.
Lars Eller has put up similar and sometimes better numbers than he did all of last season; including a playoff performance that was considered stellar by those now criticizing him. The evidence of this is overwhelming; and unlike plus/minus, actually controllable by the player himself.
We'll start with the big picture numbers and work are way down from there.
Eller has actually helped create 12 even-strength scoring-chances per-60 minutes of even-strength ice-time this season, compared to 9.385 last year. In terms of chances-against, he has been directly responsible for 4.68 chances against per-60 this year; an improvement over last year's per-60 number of 6.71.
When we combine corsi and scoring-chance numbers we see that Eller was directly involved in a scoring-chance for 17.1% of the time the Habs attempted a shot on the opposition's net while he was on the ice. This year 21.7% of the shots that occurred while Eller was on the ice at ES were scoring-chances that he was directly involved in creating.
In terms of percentage of shots-against that were scoring-chances against; last year 11.3% of the shots against while Eller was on the ice were scoring-chances that he was directly responsible for giving up; this year only 9.2% of the shots on the Montreal net while Eller was on the ice were scoring-chances that he was directly responsible for giving up.
If the argument is that he's not working hard enough; Eller has been involved in 5.08 even-strength events per-minute this year. He was involved in 4.85 per-minute last year.
Eller produced an even-strength rating (successful plays per-minute played minus failed plays) of 1.87 last season (including playoffs). His rating through 11 games this season is 2.07, and is 0.66 points above the average produced by Habs centres this season. Eller's offensive-zone rating is 0.11 points above last year's, and 0.24 points above average. One of the two zones where Eller's numbers are below those of last season is the defensive-zone, as he contributed 2.76 successful plays in the defensive-zone for every 1 failed play last year. This year's defensive-zone ratio is 2.53. His neutral-zone rating is down 0.06 points from last season.
Eller's defensive-zone ratio this season was hurt by a higher turnover-rate, while his neutral-zone numbers were impacted by a lower defensive success-rate. He had a d-zone turnover-rate of 30% in the d-zone last year, and has turned the puck over at a rate of 36.8% this season. His defensive success-rate in the neutral-zone was 68% last year, but is only 63.2% this season.
In terms of successful puck-possession plays in the offensive-zone, number 81 is averaging 45 successful plays with possession in the offensive-zone this season; up from 39.6 last year.
Eller had 6.3 scoring-chances per-100 even-strength possession-plays last season, and has improved that to 7.8 per-100 this season. Last year, Eller engaged in 13% of his overall events at even-strength while defending in the defensive-zone, and 34.9% of his ES events with possession in the offensive-zone. This season his d-zone defending percentage is down to 12.6%, while his offensive-zone possession-percentage is up to 36.7%.
These possession numbers are helped by an increase in offense-driving plays this season. Last year, Eller averaged 88.99 successful plays that move the puck up-ice while maintaining possession, or help create a shot on net in the offensive-zone per-60. That number is up to 112.88 this season. Where Eller has been struggling is in his attempt to move those offense-driving plays closer to the opposition's net. Due mainly to his o-zone start percentage, 58.4% of Eller's offense-driving plays occurred in the offensive-zone last season. This year only 45.1% of those events have occurred in the offensive-zone.
The point of this post is not to say that Eller is the perfect player with no visible faults. The truth is Eller has struggled with certain aspects of his play this season. That said, the act of criticizing a player based solely on the number of points he's scored, the number of goals-against he's been on the ice for, or by showing only one of the 65 even-strength events he averages per-game to prove an opinion you held even before you found the clip to back it up is just lazy.
Yes, I used the word bollocks.
