Were the national polls wrong about the 2020 presidential election? If you read some newspapers or watch cable news, you might think so.But I disagree. I actually think they did a pretty good job of letting us know what was happening with the electorate.
You must understand that polling is not an exact science. The best they can do is to give us a general impression of what the voters are thinking at a specific time. It's not a prediction, but a snapshot of voter feelings.
But, you might say that most major polls showed Biden with an 8 to 10 point lead over Trump, and as the image below shows, the actual margin turned out to be about 3.8 points (although it still could grow a little).
That is true. But remember, polling is not exact, and every responsible poll gives you a margin of error (the amount by which they could be wrong). For most polls that margin of error is between 3.5 and 5 points. Even the best polls could be wrong within that margin of error, and they know it, which is why they give you that.
An average of the major polls had Biden with about an 8 point lead, but if you consider the margin of error built in to those polls, it comes down to much closer to Biden's actual 3.8 point lead.
On this blog, I brought you a lot of different polls before the election. That's because the more polls you consider, the closer to the truth you will get. I will likely do the same in future elections.
Were the polls wrong? They showed us the voters were unhappy with Trump, and wanted a new president. That's exactly what happened.
