A couple of days ago, I showed you a Public Policy Polling survey showing Hillary Clinton maintains a significant lead among Iowa Democrats. Now that is verified by a new CNN / ORC Poll -- done between August 7th and 11th of a random sample of 2,014 Iowa adults, with a margin of error of 3 points. The survey queried 429 Democrats and 544 Republicans who are likely to attend their party caucus (and no margin of error was given for Republicans or Democrats only).
The poll shows that Hillary Clinton maintains a healthy 19 point lead over her nearest rival, Bernie Sanders (50% to 31%). As the second chart above shows, Bernie's problem is with women and moderates. Clinton has a 32 point lead among women and a 36 point lead among moderates. That's a huge problem, since women vote in larger numbers than men do, and the party has more moderates than liberals (in spite of what some progressives would like to think). Compounding the problem is the fact that Bernie doesn't make up any of this ground among men and liberals (with both of those groups split among the two candidates).
The chart below shows the support among Iowa Republicans for their presidential candidates. As the PPP survey showed, Donald Trump has jumped into the lead in Iowa now. The surprise is that the survey shows Ben Carson now in second place -- eclipsing Scott Walker by 5 points. Bush and Rubio are also doing very poorly in Iowa -- tied for seventh place with only 5%.
