The link between the neutral-zone and scoring-chances
As with all teams, how the Montreal Canadiens perform in the neutral-zone is critical to their success. Being successful with both their offensive and defensive opportunities in the neutral-zone helps minimize time spent defending in the defensive-zone, while maximizing time spent with possession in the offensive-zone.
During games where the Habs have out-chanced the opposition at even-strength they have engaged-in 35.6% of their overall ES events while in possession of the puck in the offensive-zone. In games where they were out-chanced that number drops to 29.2%. Similarly, in games where the Habs enjoyed a scoring-chance advantage they engaged-in only 11.9% of their overall ES events while defending (attempting to remove possession from the opposition) in the defensive-zone; when they were out-chanced that percentage jumped to 16%.
Expressing the importance of minimizing "time" spent defending in the defensive-zone in terms of scoring-chances, when the Habs are out-chanced by the opposition at ES, 34.8% of the chances they allow come off the opposition's cycle; when the Habs enjoy a scoring-chance advantage only 16.1% of the chances they allow come off of the cycle.
The Habs are having substantially more success in the neutral-zone when they out-chance the opposition at even-strength. In games where the Habs have produced more scoring-chances than the opposition they have a neutral-zone puck-possession success-rate that is 5.5 percentage-points higher than the success-rate they produced when they were out-chanced. Similarly, they have a neutral-zone defensive success-rate (success-rate when attempting to remove puck-possession from the opposition) that is an incredible 8.4 percentage-points higher during games where they out-chance the opposition.
Montreal's average neutral-zone puck-possession success-rate this season is 3 percentage points below last season, while their n-zone defensive success-rate is only 1 percentage-point lower.
The Habs centres are hurting the team defensively during games where they are out-chanced. When this happens Montreal's centres post a neutral-zone defensive success-rate that is 7.1 percentage-points lower than their success-rate when the Habs enjoy a scoring-chance advantage. Looking deeper into the individual metrics that make up players' defensive-success in the neutral-zone, we see that Habs centres are blocking 10% fewer opposition passes, and have a success-rate when attempting to remove puck-possession by way of a body-check that is 33 percentage-points lower when the Habs are out-chanced at even-strength.
Habs wingers however, are struggling with possession in the neutral-zone during games where Montreal is out-chanced at even-strength. Habs wingers have a neutral-zone puck-possession success-rate that is 8.9 percentage-points higher during games where the Habs enjoy a scoring-chance advantage. Looking deeper into the individual metrics that make up players' neutral-zone puck-possession success-rate we see that Habs wingers are successful with 10% fewer north-bound passes in the neutral-zone, and 15% fewer dump-ins during games where they are out-chanced at even-strength.
Like centremen, Habs defensemen aren't performing as well defensively in the neutral-zone during games where they are out-chanced by the opposition at even-strength. Habs defensemen have posted a defensive success-rate that is an impressive 15.6 percentage-points higher during games where they out-chance the opposition at even-strength. Specific player metrics that make up this percentage show that Montreal defensemen are successful with 26% fewer stick-check attempts, 8% fewer body-check attempts, and 8% fewer attempts to block passes during games where they are out-chanced at even-strength.
Think of the neutral-zone as the mid-point in a teeter totter (seesaw). Performance with or without the puck at this point will push the balance-point toward the opposition net, or back toward a team's own zone. Without the power of success in the neutral-zone, teams limit their own ability, while maximizing the opposition's ability to produce scoring-chances at even-strength.
