This is it. An official record. We shall see after Sunday’s broadcast, which categories I got right. the ceremony, in case you haven’t heard, has live audio description being provided by Descriptive Video Works.
Live Action Short: Eileen
I literally have seen zero contenders in this category, which is rare for me. this is the only one I’ve heard anything about, so I picked it.
Animated Short: Yuck
Doesn’t it just feel like “And the Oscar goes to… yuck!” I feel like it has manifested its own destiny. I know very little about this category this year, as well.
Documentary Short: the Only Girl In the orchestra
OK. So hear me out. yes, theoretically, I Am ready Warden should win. but, the voting body didn’t exactly respond lovingly to prison movies this year. Sing Sing, which began Oscar season as a “sure thing”, ended up not in the Best Picture race, and Clarence Macklin, despite his backstory and other nominations, fell short. Add to that, Daughters, which was also looking pretty strong for documentary feature, failed to break into its category. I think, with Netflix behind The Only Girl In The orchestra, this crowd pleaser will win.
Visual Effects: Dune PArt II
There are three films featuring CG apes. Dune really is its own thing. While I’m a blind critic, I’ve heard more about the sand worm sequence in Dune than I think pretty much any other film that isn’t The Substance. I think Dune rides the sand worm to another win in this category. Either way, unlike last year, all five nominees have audio description.
Sound: Dune Part II
Again, this goes two different ways. This often goes to war films, but also… music films have to create the excellent sound. The problem is, there are three music films here. Wicked, A Complete Unknown, and Emilia Perez could vote split. Dune Part II should end up benefitting, from people who see “sound” meaning action. The Wild Robot really doesn’t put up much of a competition.
Original Song: El Mal (Emilia Perez)
The Sing Sing song is the only song I don’t actively dislike. Compared to what the Oscars could have nominated, this category is so weak. I’d be shocked if Emilia Perez, the original musical double nominated here, and the only nominee in this category to also have a score AND sound nomination doesn’t win.
Score: the Brutalist
while Challengers, Nosferatu, and Dune Part II should have all been contenders, with two of them knocking out Perez and Wicked, I think this is between The brutalist and Conclave. Brutalist is my pick.
Makeup: the Substance
While there are some great nominees here, with Wicked, Nosferatu, and A Different Man, I don’t see The Substance not taking a victory lap at least in this category.
Costume Design: Wicked
I didn’t even consider another contender. I’ve heard people say Conclave, but come on. Really?
Production Design: Wicked
Again, the brutalist is a possibility here, but Wicked seems born to win at least costume and production.
Editing: Conclave
This could go to Conclave, the brutalist, or Añora. I think conclave has excellent pacing, is the shortest of the three, and manages exactly enough to win this. Plus, it correlates with my whole set of predictions.
Cinematography: The Brutalist
If dune PArt II had opened later in 2024, it would be a real contender here, but that movie seems relegated to VFX and Sound. I think The Brutalist picks up its second Oscar here.
international Feature: I’m Still Here
it will be one of the two films actually also o nominated in Best Picture. Brazil’s true story has way less baggage, and is surging at the right time. Despite its 13 nominations, i think Emilia Perez loses here.
Documentary feature: No other Land
Really, this comes down to activism. the last two documentaries winning this category centered on the war in Ukraine. That could mean Porcelain War wins. However, I look at it a little like that movie being The Godfather part III of the Ukraine trilogy. it’s good, but is it the harrowing experience of No Other Land? No Other Land really celebrates what it is to be a filmmaker. it has no distribution. It would be a crazy win. Only one of the five nominees actively has audio description, so we’re basically lost here no matter what.
Animated Feature: the Wild Robot
this is between Flow and the eventual winner. look, I know the little Latvian film has its fans, but that thing doesn’t have audio description, and has no dialog. The Wild Robot was nominated for 10 Annie awards (the Animation equivalent of the Oscars) and won every category. 9 wins. The only reason it didn’t do a full sweep is that it was double nominated in a category. It beat Flow over and over.
Adapted Screenplay: Conclave
if Sing Sing had a Best Picture nomination, and especially that Clarence Macklin nomination, I’d be on board. it just doesn’t. Musicals don’t typically win, which basically kills Complete Unknown and Emilia Perez, and I think Nickel Boys is going to fall short. though, it is a chance to give Ramel Ross an Oscar. However, Sing Sing would also give Clarence Macklin an Oscar, as he’s credited as a screenwriter.
Original Screenplay: The Substance
This is such a toss up. when I did my Oscar video, I said that this was the category I’d be least surprised if I got it wrong. Four of the five films have a path to victory, and have won somewhere. The Substance is so unique, and it gives the opportunity to reward the director where she likely will lose in director. Though, I could say the exact same thing about The Brutalist and añora. Plus, A Real Pain has taken this category at BAFTA and the Spirit Awards, without being a Picture contender.
Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin (A real pain)
I think he is the most locked. I feel strongest about Culkin and Wicked for costumes. He’s won every possible prize. i don’t even know who would upset.
Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)
If the buzz on her film is so bad, she does have a slim chance of being overtaken. But, because she had swept the season, it becomes hard to say who that would even be. There isn’t a clear second place, despite the opinion that Ariana Grande is there.
Actor: Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
Listen. Actors love these transformative performances. Gary Oldman. Renee Zellweger. Rami Malek. Jessica Chastain. Cillian Murphy. A bunch of recent examples of actors playing real life historical people. If this was Chalamet’s first nomination, I might be willing to be convinced Brody could win his second Oscar. i am going with the SAG choice. I also think Ralph Fiennes has an outside shot.
Actress: Demi Moore (The Substance)
Don’t put money down. this is a three-way photo finish. I think Moore, who has been giving excellent and humble speeches, is just having a moment. Fernanda Torres is her biggest competition, but Mikey Madison really also isn’t out either. one of those three. It definitely will not be Carla in any possible scenario.
Director: Sean Baker (Añora)
Even though I haven’t put this film anywhere, I think Baker will end up winning here. He’s been putting out solid work for years now, and it is his time. Brady Corbett might surprise, but I’m going with baker.
Picture: Conclave
Listen. Añora is the safe bet. it has DGA and PGA, plus Critics Choice. However, Conclave has BAFTA and SAG ensemble. Conclave also has more love from the crafts, AND it is REALLy timely, since we are about to have an actual conclave. Yes, you can win best Picture without a director nomination. Yes, the PGA and DGA occasionally will have to get it wrong. Once in a blue moon. I think that moon is this year. the only other film I think that still has a shot at Picture is The Brutalist. When Wicked failed to win SAG ensemble, I gave up on its chance of winning. Focus, Neon, or A24. All three have had fairly recent Oscar winners, with Neon backing Parasite, A24 backing Everything Everywhere All At Once, and focus being an arm of Universal, which won last year with Oppenheimer. It’s time for a Conclave.
