Well friends the 91st Academy Awards ceremony is nearly upon us! This Oscar season has certainly had its share of craziness: Kevin Hart getting hired to host then dropping out after homophobic tweets resurfaced, the Best Popular Film category going over like a fart in an elevator, the decision and then rollback to not award all twenty-four categories live, and the controversy surrounding Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book. Well hostless or not, the golden statues are going to be handed out regardless come Sunday evening. With that in mind here are my Oscar predictions for the Major Six categories: Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Director, and Best Picture.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The nominees:
Amy Adams for Vice
Marina de Tavira for Roma
Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone for The Favourite
Rachel Weisz for The Favourite
Who I'd Like To See Win: Full disclosure: I unfortunately have seen only one of these performances (de Tavira in Roma) so I really don't have a dog in this fight. If I was going by personal preference I would like to see Amy Adams win as she's constantly the bridesmaid but never the bride. (Seriously can we retroactively give her the Oscar she deserved for Arrival already?)
The nominees:
Mahershala Ali for Green Book
Adam Driver for BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott for A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant for Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell for Vice
Who I'd Like To See Win: Sam Elliott. As much as I'd love to see Driver win for his phenomenal performance in Spike Lee's BlacKkKlansman, I can't help but root for Sam Elliott here. The guy has been a character actor staple for decades in everything from Gettysburg to Tombstone to Thank You for Smoking. Would be awesome if he walked away with the trophy.
Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali. You can take this one to the bank. He's spectacular in Green Book as Doctor Paul Shirley. It's an even better performance than his Oscar winning turn in Moonlight. Ali's already won the BAFTA, Golden Globe, and the SAG and he's about to add a fourth trophy for his role in Green Book. Richard E. Grant has a slight outside chance here, but at the end of the day everyone's darling to replace Wesley Snipes as Blade will walk away a winner.
The nominees:
Yalitza Aparicio for Roma
Glenn Close for The Wife
Olivia Coleman for The Favourite
Lady Gaga for A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy for Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Who Will Win: Glenn Close. Like it or not there's something to be said for the Academy giving out essentially lifetime achievement awards. You can make the case that that was the circumstance for Paul Newman, Al Pacino, and Martin Scorsese. Two months ago it was a foregone conclusion that Gaga was going to win the Oscar, but ever sense then Glenn Close has been gaining steam. This is Close's seventh Academy award nomination and I highly doubt the Academy will pass her over again.
Christian Bale for Vice
Bradley Cooper for A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe for At Eternity's Gate
Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen for Green Book
Who I'd Like To See Win: Bradley Cooper. I'm sorry but I don't think anyone gave a more nuanced performance than Bradley Cooper. His Jackson Maine was phenomenal and it didn't hurt that he played guitar and sung all his own songs too. Cooper is a talent to be reckoned with and although he probably won't win this year, it's bound to happen at some point down the line.
Alfonso Cuaron for Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favourite
Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay for Vice
Pawel Pawlikowski for Cold War
The nominees:
A Star Is Born Bohemian Rhapsody BlacKkKlansman Black Panther The FavouriteWho Will Win: Roma. I make this claim without 100% confidence however. Like it or not there's still that Netflix movie bias out there and it's possible that could hurt Roma's chances. Green Book also has the advantage of being a crowd-pleasing and uplifting film. It's certainly the biggest challenger to Roma and while the smart money is still on the foreign film, I wouldn't be surprised if Green Book takes the night's big prize.
For those of you who follow me on Twitter, I will be live-Tweeting the Oscars Sunday night. Check me out on Twitter at @DarthGandalf1. See you then!
