If someone suggested a couple of years ago (or even months) that a Democrat might be elected to the U.S. Senate from the state of Arizona, they would have been ridiculed. After all, Arizona has been a pretty safe state for Republicans for quite a while now. But this new poll shows that the once unthinkable could actually be happening.
It shows that Democrat Krysten Sinema is currently leading all three of the Republicans running for their party's nomination. She leads Martha McSally by 6 points, Kelli Ward by 10 points, and Joe Arpaio by 26 points.
And before you go thinking that this is a poll that really doesn't represent Arizona voters, the poll included 12% more Republicans than Democrats (which is about the percentage that Republicans out number Democrats in the state).
The poll also asked Republicans who they would prefer represent them, and none of the three has majority support. Ward has 36%, McSally has 27%, and Arpaio has 22%. If it doesn't change, there will have to be a run-off decided by the supporters of Arpaio.
The final chart could give us a clue as to why the Republicans are polling so poorly right now. Donald Trump (the leader of their party) is viewed more unfavorably than favorably by 13 points (43% to 56%) -- a pretty shocking number for a red state.
It's still early and things could change. And the election will depend on how many people the Democrats can get to the polls, and who the Independents support. But right now, it looks like that blue wave may be real in Arizona.
These charts are from an ABC15 / OH Predictive Insights Poll -- done on April 10th and 11th of a random sample of 600 Arizona adults, and has a 4 point margin of error.
