1. Kansas City Chiefs select LT Luke Joeckel
When push comes to shove I think the Chiefs will choose Joeckel over incumbent Branden Albert. Joeckel has just looked so good throughout the year and did nothing to hurt his draft stock at the combine. Ideally the Chiefs would keep both guys, with Albert sliding inside, but with a lot of teams looking for help on the outside the 25 year old should have too much trouble finding someone willing to pay him handsomely to stay at LT. If Albert is retained at Tackle, I would look for the Chiefs to try moving back or taking a Defensive Lineman like Shariff Floyd or Sheldon Richardson.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars select LT Eric Fisher
I have Fisher and and Joeckel as this year’s Luck and RG3, both have looked outstanding and figure to be building blocks for the teams that draft them. I know everyone is talking about the Jaguars need for a pass rusher at this spot, but it just feels too risky for a team that is likely to be shifting schemes (Head Coach Gus Bradley has said the team will stay as a 4-3 for now due to personnel, but wants to move towards a hybrid scheme.) Fisher gives a rebuilding Jaguars team a high quality starter at a position of need for the next decade, while still instantly improving the offense. It’s the best possible move, and I’m baffled as to how it’s slipping past nearly every analyst. (Side Note: If the Jaguars do feel the need to go Defense at #2, I like Dee Milliner as press coverage corner who fits Bradley’s scheme)
3. Oakland Raiders select DT Shariff Floyd
There’s a lot of ways for the Raiders can go here, but with Richard Seymour and most the rest of the D-line starters leaving I like this as a place to start. Word has been that the Raiders like Floyd, and he capped off an impressive career at Florida with a solid combine, that I think solidifies him as the Raiders top choice to begin the defensive rebuild. This is another team I think could be well served by adding CB Dee Milliner, but the spot is still just a little too high.
4. Philadelphia Eagles select OLB/DE Dion Jordan
I originally had Dee Milliner here, but Chip Kelly’s made it clear it’s not just the corners, but the entire defense that needs to be overhauled. This move would make sense even without Jordan’s prior knowledge of Kelly’s system as he’s one of the top pass rushers in this class and has seen his stock on the rise after a solid combine. If Kelly feels Jordan’s a little too close to home, then I like Guard Chance Warmack to solidify an offensive line that will be getting back it’s sorely missed starting LT.
5. Detriot Lions select CB Dee Milliner
It almost makes too much sense to happen, but the Lions should land Milliner, who’s coming off a mixed review combine. His speed, was impressive, his hands were not…to be fair he was competing with a torn labrum in his shoulder and you have to figure that didn’t help. I originally liked Kenny Vaccaro here if Milliner was off the board, and if Eric Fisher is still available he should be a strong consideration. If DE Cliff Avril ends up walking, Bjorn Werner looks like a more than capable replacement the Lions can easily afford.
6. Cleveland Browns select QB Geno Smith
Here’s my thinking on this one: If they fail to sign Mike Wallace this pick will got to a WR (likely Corradelle Patterson, maybe Tavon Austin.) If they sign Wallace but fail to get a pass rusher this pick could go there, but I think the new ownership gets cap happy and fills most of the larger holes leaving QB as a glaring weakness. The new Browns management knows Brandon Weeden isn’t the future and supposedly wants to implement a spread option offense, Geno may be the best option available and the NFL tends not to be a wait and see sort of league.
7. Arizona Cardinals select LT Lane Johnson
I considered Matt Barkley, but ultimately decided with Bruce Arians coaching they can afford to wait and see who’s available in the second (maybe even third) round. If Fisher drops he doesn’t make it past Arizona, but since he’s gone to Jacksonville in this mock the Cardinals take the next best player at the position. Johnson is a former WR and has looked impressive enough to warrant a top 10 pick as Arizona desperately needs better protection for their QB (whoever that may be)
8. Buffalo Bills select WR Tavon Austin
GM Buddy Nix is on his way out, but that won’t keep him from making one last splash by making the speedy Austin the first receiver off the board. There’s been talk he wants to add a big bodied receiver on the outside and move Johnson into the slot, but I think after an impressive combine and some well deserved hype the Bills take their chances with the diminutive playmaker. Cordarelle Patterson is another option, but his route running is less polished. If Andy Levitre can’t be resigned and the franchise tag is used on Jarius Byrd this pick likely becomes Guard Chance Warmack.
9. New York Jets select WR Cordarrelle Patterson
There’s still an awful lot of defensive playmakers on the board, but since it was the offense that struggled so mightily, I think this is where new GM John Idzik goes with the ninth overall pick. Patterson provides the Jets with a much needed playmaker on offense and on special teams. (If the Jets do go defense, Barkevious Mingo is a likely selection as an outside pass rusher, with Sheldon Richardson a consideration at D-Line and Kenny Vaccarro a candidate for the Secondary)
10. Tennessee Titans select OG Chance Warmack
Warmack is on a lot of teams boards so there’s a chance he doesn’t make it this far, but guards aren’t typically valued very high. If he’s on the board Titans won’t hesitate. The Alabama product improves the Titans line and gives new life to CJ2K. (If Warmack is gone the Titans likely stay at OG with Jonathan Cooper)
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