(The above caricature of Rep. Ed Markey is by DonkeyHotey.)Last week, the Massachusetts GOP released a poll conducted for the Gomez campaign (an internal poll) that showed Gomez only a couple of points behind Rep. Ed Markey (the Democrat in the race). That poll caused a lot of celebration by the right-wingers, and a lot of hand-wringing by Democrats (although I think most of that was just to boost campaign donations).
The truth is that the poll was an outlier, and disagreed with all other polls taken on the race (especially the polls taken by neutral organizations, not connected with either campaign). It was like those internal polls of the Romney campaign in 2012, which had him believing he was leading President Obama. It's made up more of wishful thinking than solid polling techniques.
Now a new poll has been released. It is the Boston Globe Poll (and not connected to any campaign). It was conducted between June 11th and 14th of 508 likely voters -- and has a 4.3 point margin of error. The poll shows Rep. Markey with a double-digit lead, well beyond the margin of error, and that is true even when the "leaners" are included (those who have not conclusively made up their minds, but are leaning toward a candidate). Here are the numbers:
BOSTON GLOBE POLL
Ed Markey...............54%
Gabriel Gomez...............41%
BOSTON GLOBE POLL (with leaners)
Ed Markey...............54%
Gabriel Gomez...............43%
This poll, unlike the GOP internal poll, shows that Markey is actually increasing the lead he already had. Karl Rove was inspired by the GOP internal poll, and in this last week of the special election campaign, is pouring over $700,000 in new money into the Gomez campaign. I doubt it will make much difference though. The Boston Globe Poll found that at least 3/4 of voters have already definitely decided who they will vote for, and it would take a fair-sized miracle to overcome Markey's double-digit lead (which is not likely in a blue state like Massachusetts).
