To be bullish, I would need the market to trade back above SPY 193.52. I am not going to guess at that despite the indicators.
Long term, we are below the neon green line. There is a kick save line here, but again, I need a reaction above SPY 193.52 to consider it:
Apart from some 2008 analogs, October should be a positive month based on indicators. I do not have the time today to do a chart dump, but here is one example:
The reason I am being careful is that when I laid out the scenario for a move back to the 125 SMA, Sept. 12--Is this the top?, I noted what it looks like if the support breaks using the 1987 example:
That simple example tells me that I do not want to be guessing at this bottom below the 125 sma, so I will not despite that bull dip indicators say buy here.
In that same post, the analysis called for an October low:
So, the bullish B wave still lives from a cycle standpoint. I still believe this will play out; but, price action determines everything and I can paint a very bearish picture here as well on the larger bear scenarios. My hunch is the indicators are right and we rocket out of this dip below the 125 SMA.
However, we also have the bearish September was a terminal top scenario. Accordingly, I need to see this trade back above the 125 SMA before I guess at the bottom despite the indicators. If September was the cycle top, we would expect at least a year of downwards correction. If the larger bearish scenario is correct that could be a lot longer of bearish action. I am not there yet, but the bearish data points we have been talking about continue to pile up.
There is always a bull path and a bear path. We cannot know which path our future will choose. As always, do your own due diligence, read the disclaimer, and make your own investment decisions.
Peace, Om,
SoulJester
