The debate continues on whether the November election is a referendum on Donald Trump, or not. I am convinced that it is. And a recent poll backs me up. It shows 59% of registered voters say a congressional candidates position on Trump is extremely/very important to them, and another 12% say it is somewhat important. Only 28% say it is not important.
And that is true of both genders, all age groups, both Whites and Nonwhites, those with and without a college degree, and the type of community the voter lives in. All demographic groups have 50% or more saying a candidate's view of Trump is either extremely or very important to them.
This is good news for Democrats and bad news for many Republican candidates. That's because the overwhelming partisanship in the primaries have produced candidates that either support or oppose Trump. No Democrat could survive a primary without coming out against Trump, and no Republican could survive their primary without supporting Trump. That's means a vote for a Democratic candidate is a vote against Trump, and a vote for a Republican candidate is a vote for Trump.
That may not matter in some safe districts, but around 66 Republican seats are now viewed as competitive -- and the public's dislike of Trump will be an important factor in those districts.
The chart above reflects the results of a fairly recent ABC News / Washington Post Poll -- done between August 26th and 29th of a national sample of 1,003 adults, with a margin of error of 3.5 points.
