Republicans have been pitching a hissy fit about the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) since it was passed, and their incessant whining has convinced a lot of Americans that there must be something wrong with the health care reform. But despite their repeated attempts, the GOP has been unable to stop Obamacare. They have tried to repeal it over 50 times, but that is just political theater -- played out for the benefit of their base. Everyone knows that even if such a repeal could get through Congress (which Democratic senators would never allow), the president would just veto it.
But a few devious right-wingers came up with another plan -- use a poorly-worded section of the reform law to outlaw giving subsidies to those who bought their insurance through the federal exchange instead of a state exchange. And their case (King vs. Burwell) is now being heard in the U.S. Supreme Court -- and has about a 50-50 chance of being won, which would mean that at least 8 million people could lose their insurance (since they couldn't afford it without the subsidy).
Extremists in the GOP are celebrating this possibility, because they care more about ideology (and hating the president) than they do about citizens receiving proper health care. Smarter Republicans are beginning to worry though. They know that this one case could do more damage to their party than anything else they have done.
Eight million people, angry at the party that took their health insurance, is certainly not going to help in the next election. But a recent poll shows the damage could be even worse than that. About 71% (more than seven out of every ten Americans) want the subsidies to continue in every state -- not just the ones with a state exchange (see chart above). Many of these people may be unhappy about Obamacare in general, but they like most aspects of the law -- and one of those aspects they like (and want to see continued) is the federal subsidies to help people buy health insurance.
It the right-wingers win the court case, it's going to intensify the war within the Republican Party. They will have to decide whether to celebrate their hate, or fix the law to allow the subsidies to continue -- and that will be a huge battle, which will affect the 2016 election. I don't know how that battle would come out. I just hope the court doesn't destroy Obamacare.
The chart was made from the results of a new Hart Research Associates Poll (done for the SEIU). That survey was done between February 18th and 22nd of a random national sample of 800 likely 2016 voters, and has a margin of error of 3.5 points.
