Southeast Michigan seemed like the perfect "climate paradise."
"My family has owned my house since the 60s. ... Even when my father was a child and he lived there, no floods, no floods, no floods, no floods. Until [2021]," one resident of southeast Michigan told us. That June, a storm dumped more than 6 inches of rain on the region, overloading stormwater systems and flooding homes.
That sense of experiencing unexpected and unprecedented disasters is resonating with more Americans every year, as our research on the past, present and future of risk and resilience shows.
An analysis of federal disaster declarations for weather-related events provides more data to fuel the fears: The average number of disaster declarations has skyrocketed since 2000, nearly double the previous 20-year period.
As people wonder how livable the world will be in a warming future, a narrative has emerged about climate migration and "climate havens."
These "climate havens" are areas touted by researchers, government officials and urban planners as natural refuges from extreme climate events. Some climate havens are already welcoming people escaping the effects of climate change elsewhere. Many have affordable housing and a legacy of the infrastructure of their larger populations from before the mid-20th century, when people began to leave as industries faded.
But they are not disaster-proof - and not necessarily ready for climate change either.
Six climate paradises
Some of the most frequently cited "havens" in research by national organizations and in the news media are older cities in the Great Lakes region, the upper Midwest, and the Northeast. They include Ann Arbor, Michigan; Duluth, Minnesota; Minneapolis; Buffalo, New York; Burlington, Vermont; and Madison, Wisconsin.
Still, each of these cities will likely experience some of the largest temperature increases in the country in the coming years. Warmer air also has a greater capacity to hold water vapor, leading to more frequent, more intense, and longer-lasting storms.
These cities are already feeling the effects of climate change. In 2023 alone, the "harbor" regions of Wisconsin, Vermont and Michigan suffered significant damage from powerful storms and flooding.
Last winter was also catastrophic: Lake-effect snow, fed by moisture from the still-open waters of Lake Erie, dumped more than 4 feet of snow on Buffalo, killing nearly 50 people and leaving thousands of homes without power or heat. Duluth saw near-record snowfall and suffered significant flooding when unusually high temperatures in April caused rapid snowmelt.
Heavy rains and extreme winter storms can cause widespread damage to the energy grid, significant flooding, and increase the risk of outbreaks of waterborne diseases. These effects are particularly noticeable in older Great Lakes cities with aging energy and water infrastructure.
Older infrastructure is not built for this
Older cities often have older infrastructure that was probably not built to withstand more extreme weather events, and they are now working hard to strengthen their systems.
Many cities are investing in infrastructure upgrades, but these upgrades are often piecemeal, not permanent solutions, and often lack long-term financing. They are also typically not broad enough to protect entire cities from the effects of climate change, and can exacerbate existing vulnerabilities.
Electric grids are extremely vulnerable to the increasing impacts of severe thunderstorms and winter storms on power lines. Vermont and Michigan rank 45th and 46th, respectively, among states in electricity reliability, which includes the frequency of outages and the time it takes utilities to restore power.
Stormwater systems in the Great Lakes region also regularly can't keep up with the heavy rainfall and rapid snowmelt caused by climate change. Stormwater systems are routinely designed according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration precipitation analyses, called Atlas 14, which don't account for climate change. A new version won't be available until 2026.
At the intersection of these infrastructure challenges is more frequent and extensive urban flooding in and around port cities. An analysis by the First Street Foundation, which incorporates future climate projections into precipitation modeling, reveals that five of these six port cities face moderate or high risk of flooding.
Disaster notification data shows that the counties in which these six cities are located have had an average of six reports of severe storms and floods since 2000. That's about once every 3.9 years. And the number is increasing.
More intense precipitation could further strain stormwater infrastructure, resulting in basement flooding, contamination of drinking water sources in cities with old sewer systems, and dangerous flooding on roads and highways. Transportation systems also struggle with higher temperatures and pavement that wasn't designed for extreme heat.
As these trends intensify, cities everywhere will also need to address systemic inequalities in vulnerability that often fall along lines of race, wealth, and mobility. Urban heat island effects, energy insecurity, and increased flood risk are just a few of the problems exacerbated by climate change that hit poor residents harder.
What can cities do to prepare?
What can a safe city do in the face of climate change and increasing population growth?
Decision makers can hope for the best, but must plan for the worst. That means working to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change, but also assessing the community's physical infrastructure and social safety nets for vulnerabilities that are more likely in a warming climate.
Collaboration between sectors is also essential. For example, a community may rely on the same water resources for energy, drinking water, and recreation. Climate change can impact all three. Collaboration between sectors and including community input in climate change planning can help identify concerns early.
There are a number of innovative ways cities can finance infrastructure projects, such as public-private partnerships and green banks that support sustainability projects. For example, DC Green Bank in Washington, DC, partners with private companies to mobilize financing for natural stormwater management projects and energy efficiency.
Cities will need to remain vigilant in cutting emissions that contribute to climate change, while preparing for climate risks that are approaching even the world's 'climate havens'.
This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization that brings you facts and reliable analysis to help you understand our complex world. It was written by: Julie Arbit, University of Michigan; Brad Bottoms, University of Michiganand Earl Lewis, University of Michigan Read more: Earl Lewis serves on the Board of Directors of 2U; the Board of Trustees of ETS; the Board of Directors of American Funds/Capital Group; the Board of Trustees of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences Brad Bottoms and Julie Arbit are not employees of, consultants to, own stock in, or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointments.
