We have not one but two articles from Conservative leadership candidates in the papers this morning. Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, has an article in The sun He said Brexit was a vote of confidence in the country. And Robert Jenrick, described by the online version of The Daily Telegraph as "minister of immigration", which was his job until Wednesday, has written a longer version of his resignation letter.
The collapse of Tory discipline has happened so quickly that someone close to what he calls 'the party in the shires' mentioned Bob Hawke to me. This is code between us for a belated change of leadership before the election, which the Australian Labor Party did in 1983. After the election was called, she dumped Bill Hayden, the uninspiring leader, and installed Hawke. win not only that election, but three more.
That late switch was made in opposition, but it can also be done in government. Anthony Eden went to the country immediately after taking office in April 1955 and increased the Tory majority from 17 to 60 at that election. Boris Johnson is the only other recent example who managed to convince his opponents to give him the election that he wanted, for three months. after becoming leader in 2019.
However, these cases are both very different from the situation now. Eden was popular and had been the presumptive successor for a while; and the economy boomed. Johnson was quite popular and many voters accepted that elections were needed to break the Brexit deadlock.
This time, the Conservative leadership change would once again look desperate, likely to make matters worse for the MPs who would have to deliver it. Even if in the abstract they thought a new face could help save a few seats, the process of implementing the change could only further damage the party's reputation.
So we can reject the talk about "incoming letters" and votes of confidence. Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 committee overseeing the leadership election, has become more talkative about his role since announcing he would leave the House of Commons at the election. "Colleagues are reluctant to exercise that power" to oust a leader, he said - "the media always thinks, 'We must be almost there,'" but in previous leadership crises he was surprised by journalists' estimates of the number of letters in which he asked for a vote of confidence, "while the number was actually still relatively low".
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Badenoch and Jenrick are therefore contesting a leadership election that is likely to take place in a year's time, or a little later, after the general election in October next year or in January 2025. Badernoch is currently in the strongest position. That may not mean much, but it does mean something. We could see the last three Tory leaders, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, arriving from far away. Even David Cameron and Theresa May, who later emerged as surprise winners, were mentioned as future leaders.
Jenrick, on the other hand, is not in such a strong position, available from the bookmakers at 100 to 1, with Truss cited as a slightly better chance. Some of his fellow Conservative MPs expressed surprise this week that he appears to think he has leadership prospects, but others say he believes he should be Foreign Secretary and that the main reason for his resignation was that Sunak was not there managed to get him home. secretary when Suella Braverman was fired.
His resignation letter and today's article in the Telegraph confirm that position, in the sense that his plan for Rwanda seems unworkable. Any plan to defy international law would not get past the House of Lords - or even his own One-Nation colleagues, who revere the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). It appears he resigned to position himself for a higher post in the opposition, believing the government is a write-off, rather than a matter of principle.
That may not tell us much about Jenrick's leadership prospects, but it does tell us something about the Prime Minister's likely fate. Sunak managed to unite the parliamentary party for a year, which was quite an achievement. He was widely criticized for making a deal with Braverman a year ago to get her back into the cabinet, but it took him time. Unfortunately for him, during that time he has lost too many of the risky bets he had made in an attempt to turn things around, and now party discipline is once again crumbling.
He gambled that inflation would halve, and he won. But he gambled that NHS waiting lists would fall and the boats could be stopped, and he lost. He thought the Supreme Court would allow the planes to fly to Rwanda, but when that refused, he didn't really have a backup plan. It looks like he will get his new bill, which balances both wings of the party, through the House of Commons on Tuesday, but only because his opponents on the anti-immigration wing and on the pro-ECHR wing will choose to take a to fight another day.
Another day will be too late. The campaign to replace him has already begun. Badenoch's article is prima facie about defending Brexit against Keir Starmer in the general election - but the second meaning, about strengthening the Brexit base among Tory members in the subsequent leadership election, is not deeply hidden .
Penny Mordaunt practices her stony face at Prime Minister's Questions. James Cleverly worries that immigration and asylum issues have already ruined his chances. Braverman still thinks the "standard-bearer of the anti-immigration wing" is her route to the leadership, but it is unlikely she will ever rally enough lawmakers to get her on the ballot. Meanwhile, centrists Grant Shapps, Claire Coutinho and Gillian Keegan mill around the paddock, waiting to be called to the starting line.
"The fight is not over," Richard Holden, chairman of the Tory party, told the House of Commons press gallery at lunch on Thursday. He is right, in the formal sense that there is probably a little less or a little more than a year to go until the general election. But as he spoke, the candidates to replace his boss were preparing for the battle that will follow the election defeat.
