Last week, I wrote a post that included the Senate race in Kansas. It had turned into a 3-way race between the GOP incumbent (Roberts), a Democratic challenger (Taylor), and an Independent (Orman) who was running much stronger than anyone had expected. The chart above showed the situation. It was made with information from a Public Policy Polling survey taken between August 14th and 17th of 903 likely Kansas voters, and had a margin of error of about 3.3 points.
That poll showed Roberts with only about 32% of the vote, while Orman and Taylor split another 48% of the vote, and 17% of voters were undecided. The poll reflected Roberts' unpopularity with the voters (with 27% approval and 44% disapproval), and Orman's strong showing showed that many voters are angry with both political parties. However, I still expected Roberts to eke out a win in Kansas with a small plurality, and I said so. But something has just happened that changes everything.
On Wednesday, Democrat Chad Taylor filed papers to withdraw from the race -- and without Taylor, the race looks very different. PPP had the foresight to ask voters who they would prefer if either Taylor or Orman was not in the race. The survey showed Roberts ahead of Taylor 43% to 39% if Orman wasn't in the race -- but it was very different with Taylor out of the race, with Orman beating Roberts by 10 points (43% to 33%). The full results of that 2-way race is shown in the chart below. Note that nearly every demographic prefers Orman over Roberts (except Republicans, and even 30% of them say they'll support Orman).
This doesn't necessarily mean Roberts can't win. There are still a couple of months until election day, and there are still nearly a quarter of the electorate yet to choose between those two men. But it does make the race very difficult for Roberts. To make up a 10 point deficit, he would need to take about three-querters of the undecideds -- and that's going to be very hard to do. For the first time this election season, I think Roberts could very well lose the election.
The Republicans are definitely running scared, and grasping at election straws. They are claiming first that Taylor can't withdraw from the race unless he is physically unable to perform the functions of the office, and that if he is allowed to withdraw then the Democrats must choose someone to take his place. I don't know about that first law. It will be a decision by the Kansas Secretary of State. I don't think forcing him to stay on the ballot will sit very well with Kansas voters though. As for the second law, it just lays down some rules for choosing a new candidate -- but I don't see any part of it that says a party must choose a new candidate.
So, who is this Independent -- Greg Orman? He grew up as a Democrat (which both of his parents were), but has also been a Republican for a few years, and for the last few years has been an Independent. After scanning his website, as near as I can figure, he would feel very comfortable in a group of "blue dog" Democrats -- although he has refused to say which party he would caucus with (although he did say he would probably caucus with the majority party "for the good of the state").
He supports immigration reform with a path for citizenship, supports a woman's right to choice, believes global warming can be controlled without hurting business, and supports closing the loopholes in the background check law for gun purchases (even though he's a gun owner and supports the Second Amendment).
Sadly though, he parts with Democrats on economic issues, calling himself a "pro-business" candidate. I couldn't find any place on his website where he said anything about raising the minimum wage, which makes me wonder if he would vote against it. He also thinks everyone should pay income taxes -- even poor people. And he wants to lower corporate income taxes while removing some loopholes.
In other words, he sort of a mixed bag, who'll vote with Democrats on some issues and Republicans on others. I guess he would be an improvement over Roberts, but I not sure how much of an improvement.
