This chart is from the USA Today / Suffolk University Poll -- done between March 8th and 11th of a nationwide sample of 1,000 registered voters, with a 3.1 point margin of error.
This is just one more poll showing Donald Trump with a small lead over President Biden. And it has the talking heads on cable news ready to hand the election to Trump.
But it is far too early to give up. Polls this early in the campaign season are rarely correct. Trump's lead is smaller than the margin of error of 3.1% (which means it might not be a lead at all), and the percentage of undecideds (5.2%) is even larger. Add to this the factor that a full 25% say they could change their mind before it's time to vote in November.
Trump may have 40% of the vote, but I believe that is the most he can expect. The undecided and many of the third party voters will be unlikely to change to Trump. He scares them. They are far more likely to break for Biden - if for no other reason than to keep Trump out of the White House.
Trump is becoming unhinged, and will be even more so as the campaign continues.
There's also the story of campaign spending. Biden has a ton of money in the bank, and after a great SOTU speech, added another $10 million in just 24 hours (a campaign record). On the other hand, Trump's campaign fundraising is less that in 2020, and much of that money is being spent on lawyers and court fees (such as the bonds he has to put up for cases he lost). He's not going to be able to equal Biden in campaign ad spending.
Even if the Supreme Court delays Trump's immunity decision until June, that would still leave time for one or more of his legal cases to at least start (if not be completed) by Election Day. That's not going to help Trump with the voters - a significant portion of which have said they would not vote for a criminal.
Add to this the fact that Trump is mostly responsible for the destruction of Roe vs. Wade, and would sign a bill banning abortion in all 50 states. While Biden supports the right of women to control their own bodies (including choosing an abortion in consultation with the doctor). It's a powerful factor that favors Biden.
The race is far from over! It will take some work, but I believe the race actually favors the re-election of President Biden.
