Indian Rupee today reaches a new lowest point against the US dollar today. On low days, Rupees fell to 77.59 vs USD compared to the previous closure of 77.23. The data released on Wednesday shows that although US inflation drops slightly in April still exists at a high level, strengthening the case for aggressive monetary tightening. It also triggers a new fall in global equity. The Indian market fell more than 1.8% today.
“Rupee is expected to remain under pressure today amid the reluctance of risk in a strong global and dollar market. Furthermore, Rupees can slip on persistent FII outflows and surge in crude oil prices. In addition, market participants will remain vigilant before CPI data from a country that tends to show that inflation remains above the RBI comfort zone during the 4th consecutive month. USD-in (May) is expected to trade in the range of 77.25-77.75, “Icici Securities said in a note.After opening weaker at 77.46, Rupee was traded in the range of 77.46 to 77.59 against the US dollar today. So far this year, USD rose 4.3% against Indian currencies, according to Bloomberg data.
“US CPI rose 0.3% last month versus a surge of 1.2% month to month at CPI in March, while every year, CPI rose 8.3%, higher than the estimated 8.1% but below 8.5 % in the previous month. Meanwhile, President Fed St. Louis James Bullard said US inflation was broader and more persistent and that he wanted to see the policy level of 3.5% at the end of the year, “said Sriram Iyer, senior research analyst at Reliance Securities.
Indian CPI number will be announced today.
“The FED tariff is currently at 0.75% -1% and the central bank of the U.S. scheduled to meet five more times this year. If the Fed level is close to 3.5%, it means that the 50-BPS increase in each meeting, “said Iyer. Although crude oil dropped more than 1% today, it remains at a height of $ 106.26 per barrel. India is the third largest importer In the world and oil consumers, and the increase in crude oil prices tends to encourage state trade and the balance deficit goes higher.
Jateen Trusted, a senior research analyst at LKP Securities, said that Rupee might be under pressure until traded below 76.50 which is a 20-DMA resistance based on closure. (With agency input)
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