Debate Magazine

In Six Weeks, the Spread of the Coronoavirus Will Stop.

Posted on the 30 January 2020 by Markwadsworth @Mark_Wadsworth

From the BBC:
20 January - 291 cases
30 January - 7,711 cases

That's a compound growth rate of 39% per day. Hu
7,711 cases x (1.39 ^ 42) = over 7 billion, or pretty much the entire world population. 42 days = six weeks.
Death rates are currently at about 2% (assuming the Chinese government is telling the truth, lolz). These diseases tend to become less and less fatal as they spread. SARS was much more deadly at first, but then fizzled out and disappeared and/or just merged into flu generally, so the final death rates from coronavirus will be not much worse than the death rates from the colds and flu that go round every year anyway. And the rest of us will be immune.


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